Khairulbahri Muhamad
Bandung Institute of Technology, Postgraduate of Development Studies, Ganesha 10, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia.
J Policy Model. 2021 Nov-Dec;43(6):1354-1364. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.09.002. Epub 2021 Oct 20.
Several scholars have focused on the COVID-19 case studies in Europe and USA, leaving the people in Southeast Asia with little information about the lesson learned from their own case studies. This study aims to analyses case studies through the SEIR model in three Southeast Asia countries including Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The SEIR model incorporates two types measures including social behavior and lockdowns as well as hospital preparedness. The SEIR model reveals that Malaysia, despite its relatively low testing capacity but with the application of the national lockdown, can slash the coronavirus transmission while Indonesia has still struggled to contain the COVID-19 flow owing to partial lockdowns. Singapore, at one hand, can successfully contain the coronavirus due to the national lockdowns, and the better healthcare system. With this point in mind, it is not surprising that Singapore has very low fatality rates and significantly low cases after lockdowns. Better preparedness lockdowns, and sufficient testing capacity are keys to controlling the COVID-19 flow, especially if the development of vaccines or distribution of respective vaccines is under progress.
几位学者专注于欧美地区的新冠肺炎案例研究,使得东南亚民众对自身案例研究所得知之甚少。本研究旨在通过易感-暴露-感染-康复(SEIR)模型分析新加坡、马来西亚和印度尼西亚这三个东南亚国家的案例研究。SEIR模型纳入了两类措施,包括社会行为与封锁措施以及医院准备情况。SEIR模型显示,马来西亚尽管检测能力相对较低,但通过实施全国封锁,能够大幅减少新冠病毒传播,而印度尼西亚由于部分封锁,仍在努力控制新冠肺炎疫情传播。一方面,新加坡由于实施全国封锁以及拥有更好的医疗体系,能够成功控制新冠病毒传播。考虑到这一点,新加坡在封锁后死亡率极低且病例数显著减少也就不足为奇了。做好充分准备的封锁措施以及足够的检测能力是控制新冠肺炎疫情传播的关键,尤其是在疫苗研发或各自疫苗分发正在进行的情况下。