Mao Lu, Liu Run, Liao Wenhui, Wang Xuemei, Shao Min, Liu Shaw Chen, Zhang Yuanhang
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Beijing Innovation Center for Engineering Science and Advanced Technology, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Natl Sci Rev. 2019 May;6(3):515-523. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwy118. Epub 2018 Oct 17.
An observation-based approach is used to examine key characteristics of winter haze days in four major polluted regions in China. Major findings in this study are: first, there was no significant trend in the number of winter haze days in most provinces and districts in eastern China from 1973 to 2012, contrary to the 2.5-fold increase in the emissions of particulate matter and its precursors (PM emissions) in the same period of time. Second, meteorological and climate conditions rather than PM emissions are in control of the interannual variabilities and trends of winter haze days. These interannual variabilities (ranging from 24 to 125%) pose a substantial masking effect that must be overcome by any control of PM emissions before its impact becomes statistically detectable. Finally, we find that global warming may have contributed significantly to the trend of winter haze days in eastern China.
采用基于观测的方法来研究中国四大污染地区冬季霾日的关键特征。本研究的主要发现如下：第一，1973年至2012年期间，中国东部多数省份和地区的冬季霾日数量没有显著趋势，这与同期颗粒物及其前体物排放量（PM排放量）增长2.5倍的情况相反。第二，控制冬季霾日年际变率和趋势的是气象和气候条件，而非PM排放量。这些年际变率（范围为24%至125%）产生了显著的掩盖效应，在PM排放控制措施的影响在统计上可检测到之前，必须克服这种效应。最后，我们发现全球变暖可能对中国东部冬季霾日的趋势有显著贡献。
