Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, U.S. Social Security Administration, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
Department of Sociology, Catholic University of America, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2022 Apr 1;77(4):803-814. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbab201.
Increasing socioeconomic disparities, including in life expectancy, have important implications for the U.S. Social Security program. This study examined inter- and intracohort trends in Social Security retirement benefits, paying special attention to how lifetime benefit trajectories by socioeconomic circumstance shift across cohorts encompassing current and future retirees.
Using a dynamic microsimulation model based on representative survey data linked to administrative records, we developed a set of cohort-specific projections that estimate monthly and lifetime Social Security retirement benefits for retirees spanning the early baby boom (1945-1954) to Generation X (1965-1974) cohorts.
We found a widening socioeconomic gap in projected monthly and lifetime benefits for men and women, especially on a lifetime basis. This divergence is associated with stagnation of benefit levels among lower socioeconomic status groups coupled with upward shifts among higher strata groups. Distributional changes are linked with increasing differential mortality, but other factors also likely play a role such as rising education premiums, growing earnings inequality, and changes in women's work and relationship histories.
Widening mortality differentials can lead to distributional changes in the U.S. Social Security program. Microsimulation methodology lends insights into how the socioeconomic gap in monthly and lifetime benefit distributions may change among future older Americans in the context of differential mortality and other demographic changes. Moving forward in time, these complex patterns could offset some of the progressivity built into the system.
包括预期寿命在内的社会经济差距的扩大，对美国社会保障计划有重要影响。本研究考察了社会保障退休福利的代际和同代内趋势，特别关注在涵盖当前和未来退休人员的各个人群中，社会经济状况的终身福利轨迹如何发生变化。
我们使用基于代表性调查数据并与行政记录相链接的动态微观模拟模型，为跨越早期生育高峰期（1945-1954 年）至 X 世代（1965-1974 年）的退休人员，制定了一组特定于队列的预测方案，用以估算他们的每月和终身社会保障退休福利。
我们发现，男性和女性的预期月度和终身福利的社会经济差距正在扩大，尤其是在终身基础上。这种差异与较低社会经济地位群体的福利水平停滞不前，以及较高阶层群体的向上转移有关。分配变化与死亡率差异的增加有关，但其他因素也可能发挥作用，例如教育溢价的上升、收入不平等的扩大，以及女性工作和关系历史的变化。
死亡率差异的扩大可能导致美国社会保障计划的分配变化。微观模拟方法为了解在不同死亡率和其他人口变化的情况下，未来美国老年人的月度和终身福利分配中的社会经济差距可能会如何变化提供了深入见解。随着时间的推移，这些复杂的模式可能会抵消该系统内置的一些累进性。
