Khan Khalid, Su Chi-Wei, Zhu Meng Nan
School of Finance, Qilu University of Technology, China.
School of Economics, Qingdao University, China.
Energy (Oxf). 2022 Jan 15;239:122430. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.122430. Epub 2021 Oct 29.
The energy market is extremely vulnerable to the uncertainty caused by the pandemic and leads to global lockdowns and stagnant economic activity. This study is important because energy prices (EPs) experience a dramatic decline due to the pandemic, which has negative consequences for the global economy. We aim to analyze EPs behaviour to coronavirus (COVID-19) from 2020:01 to 2021:05. The finding shows that EPs are extremely vulnerable to the uncertainty produced by the pandemic in the short run. The COVID-19 has a negative effect on EPs in the medium to upper quantile, which suggests that higher uncertainty caused by the pandemic results in rapid decline. However, the impact of the COVID-19 is greater on the oil prices (OPs) as compared to the natural gas (NGP) and the heating oil price (HOP). Moreover, the finding reveals that COVID-19 impact on EPs are consistently negative across all the quantile. The degree of the impact increases when the relationship changes from short to long run. The pandemic has affected the energy price in the short run, which needs prudent policies to fully grasp the magnitude of the COVID-19 impact on energy prices.
能源市场极易受到疫情引发的不确定性影响，并导致全球封锁和经济活动停滞。这项研究很重要，因为能源价格因疫情而大幅下跌，这对全球经济产生了负面影响。我们旨在分析2020年1月至2021年5月期间能源价格对新冠病毒（COVID-19）的反应。研究结果表明，短期内能源价格极易受到疫情产生的不确定性影响。COVID-19对中高四分位数的能源价格有负面影响，这表明疫情引发的更高不确定性导致价格迅速下跌。然而，与天然气（NGP）和取暖油价格（HOP）相比，COVID-19对油价（OPs）的影响更大。此外，研究结果显示，COVID-19对能源价格在所有四分位数上的影响始终为负。当关系从短期变为长期时，影响程度会增加。疫情在短期内影响了能源价格，这需要谨慎的政策来全面把握COVID-19对能源价格的影响程度。
