Escola Politécnica de Saúde Joaquim Venâncio, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Avenida Brasil 4365 Sala 314, Manguinhos. 21041-360 Rio de Janeiro RJ Brasil.
University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign. Illinois Estados Unidos.
Cien Saude Colet. 2021 Oct;26(10):4453-4469. doi: 10.1590/1413-812320212610.10902021. Epub 2021 May 22.
Brazil is undergoing a demographic transition characterized by regional inequalities. It is reasonable to assume that aspects related to poverty, development and inequality might reverse the sign of the association of indicators of demographic transition, exemplifying a phenomenon known as Simpson's Paradox. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of inequality, poverty and social development on population dynamics in Brazil, verifying the occurrence of Simpson's paradox in demographic transition. We used population data from the 1991, 2000 and 2010 national censuses, broken down by age and federative unit (FU). The correlation between demographic indicators was assessed by stratifying the FUs into groups according to their median social indicators. The findings show that all FUs have progressed against social indicators and are undergoing demographic transition; however, despite reductions in disparities over the study period, persistent gaps exist between regions. Simpson's paradox was present when the analysis was carried out by census year and social indicators, and was particularly pronounced in 1991. The main challenge is to define how to analyze demographic dynamics in Brazil and understand how contextual factors alter the pace, quantum, and pattern of demographic transition.
巴西正在经历人口转型，其特点是地区间存在不平等现象。可以合理地假设，与贫困、发展和不平等相关的方面可能会逆转人口转型指标关联的方向，这例证了一种被称为辛普森悖论的现象。本研究旨在分析不平等、贫困和社会发展对巴西人口动态的影响，以验证人口转型中是否存在辛普森悖论。我们使用了 1991 年、2000 年和 2010 年全国人口普查按年龄和联邦单位（FU）划分的数据。根据社会指标中位数将 FU 分层为不同组，以评估人口指标之间的相关性。研究结果表明，所有 FU 都在朝着社会指标的方向发展，并正在经历人口转型；然而，尽管在研究期间差异有所减少，但各地区之间仍存在持续的差距。当按普查年份和社会指标进行分析时，辛普森悖论存在，尤其是在 1991 年更为明显。主要的挑战是如何定义如何分析巴西的人口动态，并了解背景因素如何改变人口转型的速度、数量和模式。
