Lu Z L, Tang J L, Fu Z T, Zhang J Y, Chu J, Zhang B Y, Guo X L, Xu A Q
Department of Non-communicable Chronic Disease Control, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China.
Department of Business Management, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2021 Nov 6;55(11):1275-1279. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20201229-01499.
To investigate the distribution characteristics and trends of mortality and spatial aggregation of gastric cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013. The mortality data of gastric cancer from 1970 to 1974, 1990 to 1992 and 2004 to 2005 were collected from the first, second and third retrospective sampling survey of causes of death in Shandong Province, respectively. The mortality data of gastric cancer from 2011 to 2013 were collected from the all-cause surveillance data of Shandong Province. The crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate were used to describe the death level of gastric cancer. The age-standardized mortality rate of Shandong Province was calculated based on Segi's world standard population, and the age-standardized mortality rate of counties (cities and districts) was calculated based on the Chinese population in 1964.The factors influencing the difference of gastric cancer mortality in different periods were decomposed by using the method of differential decomposition of mortality, and the contributions of population and non-population factors in different periods were estimated.Using ArcGIS 10.2 software, the death level of gastric cancer in different counties (cities and districts) in Shandong province from 1970 to 1974 and 2011 to 2013 were visualized. DeoDa 1.12 software was used for global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis. The crude death rate and age-standardized death rate of gastric cancer in Shandong province increased firstly and then decreased during 1970-2013, and the crude death rate of gastric cancer increased from 18.33/100 000 in 1970-1974 to 28.51/100 000 in 2011-2013. Segi's age-standardized mortality rate for gastric cancer decreased from 20.94 per 100 000 in 1970-1974 to 18.17 per 100 000 in 2011-2013.From 1990 to 1992, from 2004 to 2005 and from 2011 to 2013, the contribution value of non-population factors to the increase of crude gc mortality was 95.59%, 48.45% and -20.57%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend. The Moran's index of crude mortality of gastric cancer in Shandong province from 1970 to 1974 and from 2011 to 2013 were 0.77 and 0.57, respectively, and the Moran's index of age-normalized mortality was 0.75 and 0.44, respectively. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that there were 31 and 19 high aged-mortality areas of gastric cancer in 1970-1974 and 2011-2013 respectively, and 7 overlapping counties (cities and districts), 6 of which were located in Jiaodong area. The crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of gastric cancer in Shandong province increased first and then decreased from 1970 to 2013, and the distribution of gastric cancer mortality had obvious spatial aggregation and changed with time.
调查1970年至2013年山东省胃癌死亡率及空间聚集的分布特征和变化趋势。分别从山东省第一次、第二次和第三次回顾性死因抽样调查中收集1970年至1974年、1990年至1992年以及2004年至2005年的胃癌死亡率数据。2011年至2013年的胃癌死亡率数据来自山东省全死因监测数据。采用粗死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率描述胃癌死亡水平。山东省年龄标准化死亡率基于Segi世界标准人口计算，县（市、区）年龄标准化死亡率基于1964年中国人口计算。运用死亡率差异分解法对不同时期胃癌死亡率差异的影响因素进行分解，估算不同时期人口因素和非人口因素的贡献。利用ArcGIS 10.2软件对1970年至1974年以及2011年至2013年山东省不同县（市、区）的胃癌死亡水平进行可视化展示。使用DeoDa 1.12软件进行全局和局部空间自相关分析。1970年至2013年山东省胃癌粗死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率呈先上升后下降趋势，胃癌粗死亡率从1970年至1974年的18.33/10万上升至2011年至2013年的28.51/10万。胃癌Segi年龄标准化死亡率从1970年至1974年的20.94/10万降至2011年至2013年的18.17/10万。1990年至1992年、2004年至2005年以及2011年至2013年，非人口因素对胃癌粗死亡率上升的贡献值分别为95.59%、48.45%和 -20.57%，呈持续下降趋势。1970年至1974年以及2011年至2013年山东省胃癌粗死亡率的Moran's指数分别为0.77和0.57，年龄标准化死亡率的Moran's指数分别为0.75和0.44。局部自相关分析显示，1970年至1974年和2011年至2013年分别有31个和19个胃癌高年龄别死亡区域，其中有7个县（市、区）重叠，6个位于胶东地区。1970年至2013年山东省胃癌粗死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率呈先上升后下降趋势，胃癌死亡率分布具有明显的空间聚集性且随时间变化。
