Mandeya Shelton Masimba Tafadzwa, Ho Sin-Yu
Department of Economics, University of South Africa, P.O. Box 392, Unisa, Pretoria 0003, South Africa.
MethodsX. 2021 Aug 25;8:101501. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2021.101501. eCollection 2021.
Inflation and inflation uncertainty are instrumental in the determination of financial stability, and ultimately, economic growth. We investigated the impact of inflation and inflation uncertainty on growth in South Africa by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation techniques on quarterly data covering the period 1961Q1 to 2019Q4. Unlike previous studies on South Africa, we investigated the joint impact of inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa, and also, pioneered in comparing the impact of both variables on growth before, and after, inflation targeting. This provided an opportunity to assess the effectiveness of inflation targeting while also investigating any changes in the behavior of the variables. We found that inflation negatively harms growth in both the short and long run, while inflation uncertainty is a short-run phenomenon in South Africa with no bearing in the long run. To promote growth, policymakers should continue to pursue policies that ensure price stability. • The paper investigated the impact of inflation and inflation uncertainty on economic growth in South Africa covering the period 1961Q1 to 2019Q4. • Using the autoregressive distributed lag estimation techniques, the paper found that inflation harms economic growth in both the short- and long-run in South Africa while inflation uncertainty is a short-run phenomenon as it affects economic growth only in the short run, • Interestingly, after adoption of inflation targeting, inflation uncertainty lost it relevance as a factor determining economic growth in South Africa.
通货膨胀和通货膨胀不确定性对金融稳定乃至经济增长的决定作用至关重要。我们运用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）估计技术，对1961年第一季度至2019年第四季度的季度数据进行分析，研究了通货膨胀和通货膨胀不确定性对南非经济增长的影响。与以往关于南非的研究不同，我们考察了通货膨胀和通货膨胀不确定性在南非的联合影响，并且率先比较了这两个变量在通货膨胀目标制实施前后对经济增长的影响。这为评估通货膨胀目标制的有效性提供了契机，同时也考察了这些变量行为的任何变化。我们发现，通货膨胀在短期和长期都会对经济增长产生负面影响，而通货膨胀不确定性在南非只是一种短期现象，从长期来看并无影响。为促进经济增长，政策制定者应继续推行确保物价稳定的政策。• 本文研究了1961年第一季度至2019年第四季度期间通货膨胀和通货膨胀不确定性对南非经济增长的影响。• 运用自回归分布滞后估计技术，本文发现通货膨胀在短期和长期都会损害南非的经济增长，而通货膨胀不确定性只是一种短期现象，因为它仅在短期内影响经济增长。• 有趣的是，在采用通货膨胀目标制后，通货膨胀不确定性在南非失去了作为决定经济增长因素的相关性。
