Department of Economic, Federal University Lokoja, Lokoja, Kogi State, Nigeria.
Faculty of Economics Administrative and Social sciences, Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Apr;27(10):10553-10564. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-07691-x. Epub 2020 Jan 15.
This study examines the role of industrialization in the energy-growth-FDI nexus for the case of South Africa using data over the period 1970 to 2018. The empirical exercise was conducted using Pesaran Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. To accomplish our study objective, we analyze stationarity properties of the series using the unit root test after which we applied Bayer-Hanck (B-H) combined technique to cointegration to assess whether a long-run relationship exists among the series. Empirical results show that a 1% change in FDI account for 0.002% and 0.013% increase in economic expansion in the short- and long- run respectively. Also, a 1% increase in coal consumption influence GDP negatively by 0.083% and 0.207% in the short and long run respectively. Furthermore, a 1% increase in total natural resource rent positively affects GDP by 0.02% and 0.05% respectively in the short and long run. Industrialization, on the other hand, demonstrates a positive and significant impact on the economic growth process both in the short and long run. Industrialization contributes 0.506% and 1.274% to economic expansion both in the short and long run respectively. The causality tests suggest that a one-way causal link running from FDI to industrialization and from industrialization to coal consumption exists. Finally, FDI inflow drives total natural resource rents in South Africa. This study also gives reliable growth and energy policy proposals to policymakers applicable to countries around the globe.
本研究利用 1970 年至 2018 年期间的数据，考察了工业化在南非能源-增长-FDI 关系中的作用。实证研究使用 Pesaran 自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 边界检验方法进行。为了完成我们的研究目标，我们使用单位根检验分析了序列的平稳性特征，然后应用 Bayer-Hanck (B-H) 组合技术进行协整，以评估序列之间是否存在长期关系。实证结果表明，FDI 变化 1%将分别导致经济增长在短期内和长期内增加 0.002%和 0.013%。此外，煤炭消费增加 1%将分别对 GDP 产生负向影响，在短期内和长期内分别为-0.083%和-0.207%。此外，总自然资源租金增加 1%将分别对 GDP 产生正向影响，在短期内和长期内分别为 0.02%和 0.05%。另一方面，工业化对经济增长过程具有积极且显著的短期和长期影响。工业化对经济增长的贡献分别为 0.506%和 1.274%，在短期内和长期内均为正。因果关系检验表明，FDI 流向工业化和工业化流向煤炭消费存在从 FDI 到工业化和从工业化到煤炭消费的单向因果关系。最后，FDI 流入推动了南非的总自然资源租金。本研究还为全球各国的政策制定者提供了可靠的增长和能源政策建议。
