Department of Agronomy, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, 402202, Taiwan, ROC.
Division of Biotechnology, Taiwan Agricultural Research Institute, Taichung, 41362, Taiwan, ROC.
Sci Rep. 2021 Nov 12;11(1):22187. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-01583-x.
The presence of the field border (FB), such as roadways or unplanted areas, between two fields is common in Asian farming system. This study evaluated the effect of the FB on the cross-pollination (CP) and predicted the CP rate in the field considering and not considering FB. Three experiments including 0, 6.75, and 7.5 m width of the FB respectively were conducted to investigate the effect of distance and the FB on the CP rate. The dispersal models combined kernel and observation model by calculating the parameter of observation model from the output of kernel. These models were employed to predict the CP rate at different distances. The Bayesian method was used to estimate parameters and provided a good prediction with uncertainty. The highest average CP rates in the field with and without FB were 74.29% and 36.12%, respectively. It was found that two dispersal models with the FB effect displayed a higher ability to predict average CP rates. The correlation coefficients between actual CP rates and CP rates predicted by the dispersal model combined zero-inflated Poisson observation model with compound exponential kernel and modified Cauchy kernel were 0.834 and 0.833, respectively. Furthermore, the predictive uncertainty was reducing using the dispersal models with the FB effect.
田间田埂（FB）的存在，如道路或未种植区域，在亚洲农业系统中很常见。本研究评估了 FB 对异交（CP）的影响，并考虑和不考虑 FB 时预测田间 CP 率。进行了三个实验，分别包括 FB 宽 0、6.75 和 7.5 m，以调查距离和 FB 对 CP 率的影响。扩散模型通过从核的输出计算观测模型的参数，将核和观测模型组合在一起。这些模型用于预测不同距离的 CP 率。贝叶斯方法用于估计参数，并提供具有不确定性的良好预测。有和没有 FB 的田间平均 CP 率最高分别为 74.29%和 36.12%。结果表明，具有 FB 效应的两个扩散模型显示出更高的预测平均 CP 率的能力。与零膨胀泊松观测模型与复合指数核和修正 Cauchy 核相结合的扩散模型预测的实际 CP 率之间的相关系数分别为 0.834 和 0.833。此外，使用具有 FB 效应的扩散模型降低了预测不确定性。
