Buil-Gil David, Zeng Yongyu, Kemp Steven
Department of Criminology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, 2.17 Williamson Building, Oxford Road, Manchester, M15 6FH UK.
Law School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
Crime Sci. 2021;10(1):26. doi: 10.1186/s40163-021-00162-9. Epub 2021 Nov 10.
Much research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.
许多研究表明，为应对新冠疫情而实施的首轮封锁措施与日常活动的变化相关，进而与犯罪情况的变化相关。虽然在首轮封锁之后，几类暴力犯罪和财产犯罪立即减少，但网络犯罪率却有所上升。然而，很少有研究探讨多轮封锁与中期犯罪之间的关系。此外，很少有研究使用同一数据集分析线下犯罪和网络犯罪中可能存在的对比趋势。为填补这些研究空白，本文采用中断时间序列分析方法，考察北爱尔兰实施的三轮封锁令对线下犯罪和网络犯罪的影响。我们分析了警方在2015年4月至2021年5月期间记录的犯罪数据。结果显示，许多类型的传统线下犯罪在封锁后有所下降，但随后又反弹至疫情前的水平。相比之下，结果似乎表明，与网络相关的欺诈和依赖网络的犯罪随着封锁导致的网络习惯变化而增加，且仍高于新冠疫情之前的水平。疫情很可能加速了网络犯罪的长期上升趋势。我们还发现，实施居家令的封锁措施对犯罪的影响比未实施该措施的封锁措施更为明显。我们的研究结果有助于理解应对疫情的措施如何在中期影响犯罪趋势，以及有助于确定疫情对犯罪可能产生的长期影响，从而加强政策和实践的证据基础。
