Balmori de la Miyar Jose Roberto, Hoehn-Velasco Lauren, Silverio-Murillo Adan
Business and Economics School, Universidad Anahuac Mexico, Av. Universidad Anáhuac 46, 52786 Huixquilucan, Mexico.
Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA.
Crime Sci. 2021;10(1):14. doi: 10.1186/s40163-021-00147-8. Epub 2021 Jun 30.
The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico's , which reports municipality-level rates on assault & battery, theft & property crime, fraud, drug crimes & extortion, and homicides. Our results show that the majority of crimes follow a U-shaped trend-when the lockdown ends-crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.
现有的经验证据表明，由于新冠疫情封锁措施，总体犯罪率有所下降。然而，当封锁措施放松时会发生什么呢？本文探讨了在居家令结束后，新冠疫情对墨西哥全国犯罪率的影响。我们使用了墨西哥的全国犯罪数据，该数据报告了市级层面的殴打、盗窃与财产犯罪、欺诈、毒品犯罪与敲诈勒索以及凶杀案的犯罪率。我们的结果表明，大多数犯罪呈现出U形趋势——当封锁结束时，犯罪率回升至疫情前的水平。
