Assessment of current and future land use/cover changes in soil erosion in the Rio da Prata basin (Brazil).

In recent years, the Cerrado biome in Brazil (Brazilian savannah) has faced severe environmental problems due to abrupt changes in land use/cover (LUC), causing increased soil loss, sediment yield and water turbidity. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the impacts of soil loss and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) over the last 30 years to simulate future scenarios of soil losses from 2050 to 2100 and to investigate an episode of sediment delivery that occurred in the Rio da Prata Basin (RPB) in 2018. In this study, the following were used: an estimation of soil losses for 1986, 1999, 2007 and 2016 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), an estimation of SDR, sediment export and sediment deposition using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, an association of RUSLE factor C to LUC data for 2050 and 2100 based on the CA-Markov hybrid model, and an estimation of future soil erosion scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The results show that over the last 30 years (1986-2016), there has been a reduction in the areas of highly intense and severe degrees. Future soil erosion scenarios (2050-2100) showed a 13.84% increase in areas of soil loss >10 Mg ha year. The results highlighted the importance of assessing the impacts of LUC changes on soil erosion and the export of sediments to agricultural watersheds in the RPB, one of the best ecotourism destinations in Brazil. In addition, the increase in soil loss in the region intensified sediment yield events and increased water turbidity. Furthermore, riparian vegetation, although preserved, was not able to protect the watercourse, showing that it is essential to adopt the best management practices in the agricultural production areas of the basin, especially where ramps are extensive or the slope is greater than 2%, to reduce the runoff velocity and control the movement of sediments on the surface towards the drainage canals. The results of this study are useful for drawing up a soil and water conservation plan for the sustainable production of agriculture and maintenance of ecosystem services in the region.