Iyaniwura Sarafa A, Rabiu Musa, David Jummy F, Kong Jude D
Department of Mathematics and Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
School of Mathematics, Statistics & Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
Math Biosci Eng. 2021 Oct 15;18(6):8905-8932. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021439.
Adherence to public health policies such as the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented against COVID-19 plays a major role in reducing infections and controlling the spread of the diseases. In addition, understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is also important in order to make and implement efficient public health policies. In this paper, we developed an SEIR-type compartmental model to assess the impact of adherence to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of the disease. Our model considers both direct and indirect transmission routes and stratifies the population into two groups: those that adhere to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and those that do not adhere to the NPIs. We compute the control reproduction number and the final epidemic size relation for our model and study the effect of different parameters of the model on these quantities. Our results show that there is a significant benefit in adhering to the COVID-19 NPIs.
遵守公共卫生政策，如针对新冠疫情实施的非药物干预措施，在减少感染和控制疾病传播方面发挥着重要作用。此外，了解疾病的传播动态对于制定和实施有效的公共卫生政策也很重要。在本文中，我们开发了一个SEIR型 compartmental模型，以评估遵守新冠疫情非药物干预措施和间接传播对疾病动态的影响。我们的模型考虑了直接和间接传播途径，并将人群分为两组：遵守新冠疫情非药物干预措施（NPIs）的人群和不遵守NPIs的人群。我们计算了模型的控制再生数和最终疫情规模关系，并研究了模型不同参数对这些量的影响。我们的结果表明，遵守新冠疫情NPIs有显著益处。
