Computer Programming, Antalya Bilim University, Antalya 07190, Turkey.
Institute of Applied Mathematics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara 06800, Turkey.
Math Biosci Eng. 2021 Nov 5;18(6):9787-9805. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021480.
In this study, a mathematical model for simulating the human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is presented for Turkey's data. For this purpose, the total population is classified into eight epidemiological compartments, including the super-spreaders. The local stability and sensitivity analysis in terms of the model parameters are discussed, and the basic reproduction number, R, is derived. The system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is solved by using the Galerkin finite element method in the FEniCS environment. Furthermore, to guide the interested reader in reproducing the results and/or performing their own simulations, a sample solver is provided. Numerical simulations show that the proposed model is quite convenient for Turkey's data when used with appropriate parameters.
本研究提出了一个用于模拟新型冠状病毒疾病（COVID-19）人际传播的数学模型，针对土耳其的数据进行了研究。为此，将总人口分为八个流行病学隔室，包括超级传播者。讨论了模型参数的局部稳定性和敏感性分析，并推导出基本繁殖数 R。在 FEniCS 环境中使用 Galerkin 有限元方法求解非线性常微分方程组。此外，为了指导感兴趣的读者重现结果和/或进行自己的模拟，提供了一个示例求解器。数值模拟表明，当使用适当的参数时，该模型非常适合土耳其的数据。
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