Meng H R, Zhao Q L, Huang B, Xiao J P, Liu T, Zhu Z H, Gong D X, Wan D H, Huang C R, Ma W J
School of Public Health, Southern Medical University,Guangzhou 510515,China Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2021 Mar 10;42(3):520-526. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200423-00634.
To study the association between apparent temperature (AT) and the incidence of hand,foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and its spatial heterogeneity in 46 cities in Guangdong, Anhui and Jilin provinces, and provide scientific evidence for the early warning of HFMD. The data of HFMD incidence and meteorological factors from 2009 to 2018 in Guangdong province, 2009 to 2015 in Anhui province, and 2013 to 2018 in Jilin province were collected. Distributed lag non-linear models were constructed to investigate the association between AT and the incidence of HFMD in 46 cities from three provinces in China. Meta-analysis was used to pool the city-specific estimates, and Meta-regression was applied to analyze the factors that may cause spatial heterogeneity. The relationship between daily AT and the incidence of HFMD in 46 cities appeared nonlinear. The association in Guangdong was similar to that in Jilin, and the risk of HFMD increased with the increase of AT. While the risk of HFMD in Anhui first increased with the increase of AT, and peaked at 18.1 ℃ and then went down. AT on different levels showed different lag impacts and the higher AT showed greater and longer lag impact. The spatial heterogeneity of associations may have been caused by latitude, longitude, average temperature, and average sunshine hours. AT is a comprehensive index to evaluate the association between temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and the incidence of HFMD. Higher AT may increase the risk of HFMD. The AT and HFMD relationship across spatial heterogeneity varies depending on geographic location and meteorological conditions.
研究广东、安徽和吉林三省46个城市体感温度（AT）与手足口病（HFMD）发病率之间的关联及其空间异质性，为手足口病预警提供科学依据。收集了广东省2009年至2018年、安徽省2009年至2015年以及吉林省2013年至2018年的手足口病发病率和气象因素数据。构建分布滞后非线性模型，研究中国三省46个城市的AT与手足口病发病率之间的关联。采用Meta分析汇总各城市的估计值，并应用Meta回归分析可能导致空间异质性的因素。46个城市的每日AT与手足口病发病率之间的关系呈非线性。广东的关联与吉林相似，手足口病风险随AT升高而增加。而安徽的手足口病风险最初随AT升高而增加，在18.1℃时达到峰值，然后下降。不同水平的AT显示出不同的滞后影响，较高的AT显示出更大和更长的滞后影响。关联的空间异质性可能由纬度、经度、平均温度和平均日照时数引起。AT是评估温度、相对湿度和风速与手足口病发病率之间关联的综合指标。较高的AT可能增加手足口病风险。AT与手足口病之间的关系在空间异质性上因地理位置和气象条件而异。
