Tang S Q, Chen W, Zhao P Z, Zheng H P, Yang B, Shi L S, Ling L, Wang C
School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510091, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2021 Apr 10;42(4):620-625. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200807-01043.
To explore the spatiotemporal distribution and macro-related factors of congenital syphilis in Guangdong province and provide suggestions and recommendations for prevention. Yearly reported cases of syphilis and some influencing factor data of Guangdong province were collected from 2005 to 2017. The spatiotemporal distribution of congenital syphilis was described. Meanwhile, the spatial panel data model was constructed to analyze the relationship between the incidence rates of congenital syphilis and related factors. From 2005 to 2017, 13 361 cases of congenital syphilis were reported in Guangdong province. The number of congenital syphilis cases rose to its highest point during 2005-2011. A slow downward trend followed. The peaks of incidence were observed from August to December. The incidence of the non-Pearl River Delta region has experienced a process of rising first and then decreasing. The spatial panel data model results showed that congenital syphilis had significant positive spatial autocorrelation (<0.001). The incidence of primary and secondary syphilis in women (β=0.822,<0.001), gross domestic product per capita (β=3.511,<0.001), net migrate rate (β=0.215,=0.047) and maternal system management rate(β=0.017,=0.021) were all positively correlated with the incidence rates of congenital syphilis. Registered population density (β=-1.167,<0.001) and prenatal examination rate (β=-0.038,=0.031) was negatively correlated with congenital syphilis. The incidence of congenital syphilis was spatially aggregated in Guangdong province from 2005 to 2017. The intensity of prevention might be strengthened in cities with developed economies and high net migration rates, which have high risks of congenital syphilis. Controlling the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis in women and increasing the prenatal examination rate for pregnant women appears effective prevention measures of congenital syphilis.
探讨广东省先天性梅毒的时空分布及宏观相关因素，为预防工作提供建议。收集2005年至2017年广东省梅毒年报告病例及部分影响因素数据，描述先天性梅毒的时空分布，同时构建空间面板数据模型分析先天性梅毒发病率与相关因素的关系。2005年至2017年，广东省共报告先天性梅毒病例13361例，先天性梅毒病例数在2005 - 2011年期间升至最高点，随后呈缓慢下降趋势，发病高峰出现在8月至12月，非珠江三角洲地区发病率经历了先上升后下降的过程。空间面板数据模型结果显示，先天性梅毒存在显著的正空间自相关（<0.001），女性一、二期梅毒发病率（β = 0.822，<0.001）、人均国内生产总值（β = 3.511，<0.001）、净迁移率（β = 0.215，=0.047）和孕产妇系统管理率（β = 0.017，=0.021）均与先天性梅毒发病率呈正相关，户籍人口密度（β = -1.167，<0.001）和产前检查率（β = -0.038，=0.031）与先天性梅毒呈负相关。2005年至2017年广东省先天性梅毒发病率存在空间聚集现象，对先天性梅毒风险高的经济发达、净迁移率高的城市，可加强预防力度，控制女性一、二期梅毒发病率，提高孕妇产前检查率是预防先天性梅毒的有效措施。
