Yin J F, Huang R W, Jiang H, Gao Z D, Xu W L, He X X, Li W M
Beijing Chest Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 101149, China.
School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2021 Jul 10;42(7):1240-1245. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210106-00008.
To understand the spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and influencing factors in Beijing from 2008 to 2018. The incidence data of pulmonary TB in Beijing from 2008 to 2018 were from Tuberculosis Information Management System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary TB incidence. Getis's statistic was applied to analyze the spatial clustering of pulmonary TB incidence at street/township scale. Bayesian spatiotemporal model was applied to analyze factors affecting its spatiotemporal distribution, including urbanization rate, GDP per capita, number of hospital beds per thousand population, permanent migrant population and population density. The reported pulmonary TB incidence showed a downward trend in the past 11 years in Beijing, from 58.64/100 000 to 30.43/100 000. The incidences were higher in Tongzhou, Changping and other newly developed urban districts, with the hot spots concentrated in local areas of these districts. The incidences of pulmonary TB were lower in Dongcheng, Xicheng and other old urban districts-with the cold spots also concentrated in these area. The risk for the incidence of pulmonary TB was associated with the urbanization rate and the permanent migrant population. For every 1% increase in the urbanization rate, the relative risk of pulmonary TB would increase by 1%. For every 10 000 person increase of permanent migrant population, the relative risk of pulmonary TB would increase by 0.6%. In Beijing, the current pulmonary TB prevention and control needs to be focused on the newly developed urban areas. Due to the accelerated process of urbanization, it is necessary to strengthen TB prevention and control in permanent migrant population to reduce the incidence of TB in Beijing.
了解2008年至2018年北京市肺结核（TB）的时空分布及影响因素。2008年至2018年北京市肺结核发病数据来自中国疾病预防控制信息系统的结核病信息管理系统。使用ArcGIS 10.2软件对肺结核发病率的时空分布进行可视化。应用Getis统计量分析街道/乡镇尺度上肺结核发病率的空间聚集性。应用贝叶斯时空模型分析影响其时空分布的因素，包括城市化率、人均GDP、每千人口医院床位数、外来常住人口和人口密度。北京市报告的肺结核发病率在过去11年呈下降趋势，从58.64/10万降至30.43/10万。通州、昌平及其他新开发城区发病率较高，热点集中在这些城区的局部地区。东城、西城等老城区肺结核发病率较低，冷点也集中在这些区域。肺结核发病风险与城市化率和外来常住人口有关。城市化率每增加1%，肺结核相对风险增加1%。外来常住人口每增加1万人，肺结核相对风险增加0.6%。在北京，当前肺结核防控工作需聚焦新开发城区。由于城市化进程加快，有必要加强对外来常住人口的结核病防控，以降低北京市的结核病发病率。
