Center for Intelligent Ecology and Sustainability, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, 866 Yuhangtang Rd., Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Inner Mongolia Academy of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, 22 Zhaojun Rd., Hohhot, 010031, China.
J Environ Manage. 2022 Feb 1;303:114113. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114113. Epub 2021 Nov 20.
Globally, the payments for ecosystem services (PES) program has become a helpful tool that serves the purpose of mitigating ecosystem degradation and protecting ecosystem services. However, the ecological effects of existing PES programs based on counterfactual baselines, quantification and sophisticated statistical analyses are still poorly understood. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, this study evaluated the ecological effectiveness of the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) using the matching approach. The findings are as follows. First, 49.8% and 41.5% of the townships had significant gains in vegetation quantity and quality between 2000 and 2015, respectively; while 9.5% and 13.7% of the townships had significant losses in vegetation quantity and quality, respectively. Second, for forest quantity recovered townships, comparing to the NFCP unenrolled townships, the enrolled townships had increased forest quantity by additional 0.377 million ha (5.2%) from 2000 to 2015. Third, for forest quality recovered townships, the enrolled townships on average additionally increased forest quality by 465.513 Gg carbon (3.6%) from 2000 to 2015. Our study helps to promote sophisticated impact evaluation of conservation policies, which would improve the understanding and management of conservation practices in China and abroad.
全球范围内，生态系统服务支付（PES）计划已成为一种有用的工具，有助于减轻生态系统退化和保护生态系统服务。然而，基于反事实基准、量化和复杂统计分析的现有 PES 计划的生态效应仍知之甚少。本研究以内蒙古为例，采用匹配方法评估了天然林保护计划（NFCP）的生态有效性。研究结果如下。首先，2000 年至 2015 年期间，分别有 49.8%和 41.5%的乡镇在植被数量和质量方面有显著提高；而分别有 9.5%和 13.7%的乡镇在植被数量和质量方面有显著下降。其次，对于森林数量恢复的乡镇，与未参与 NFCP 的乡镇相比，参与 NFCP 的乡镇在 2000 年至 2015 年间额外增加了 0.377 万公顷（5.2%）的森林面积。第三，对于森林质量恢复的乡镇，参与乡镇在 2000 年至 2015 年间平均额外增加了 465.513 Gg 碳（3.6%）的森林质量。本研究有助于促进保护政策的复杂影响评估，从而提高国内外对保护实践的理解和管理。
