Sun Xiumei, Zhang Haotian, Ahmad Mahmood, Xue Chaokai
Business School, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo, 255000, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Apr;29(16):23847-23860. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-17386-6. Epub 2021 Nov 24.
In 2020, China promised to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, and these targets are famous as "Goal 3060" in China. Chinese resource-based cities are concerned about the realization of Goal 3060 to practice national action against environmental change. In this paper, this study evaluates the impact of population, economic growth, energy intensity, industrial structure, fixed asset investment, and urbanization level on carbon emissions in Chinese cities. To do so, the paper divides 36 Chinese cities into four types (growing city, mature city, recessionary city, and regenerative city) from 2003 to 2017 by factor investigation according to the diverse development stages. The extended STIRPAT model is used to assess the impact of various factors on CO emissions in the Yellow River basin and diverse city levels. The panel regression analysis was conducted for the basin as a whole and cities at different development stages through a fixed-effects model and a linear regression model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. The results show that (1) the total carbon emissions in the Yellow River basin continued to climb during the study period. However, the growth rate slowed down significantly after 2012. In addition, there are differences in the total carbon emissions and growth rate of different cities. (2) Population, real GDP, energy intensity, industrial structure, and fixed asset investment all have a significant positive impact on carbon emissions in the overall basin except the urbanization level which has a significant negative influence on carbon emissions. (3) There is heterogeneity in the influencing factors of carbon emissions in resource-based cities at various development stages. Based on these results, corresponding policies are proposed for different types of cities to help resource-based cities achieve the 3060 dual carbon goal.
2020年，中国承诺到2030年实现碳达峰，到2060年实现碳中和，这些目标在中国被称为“3060目标”。中国的资源型城市关注3060目标的实现，以践行应对环境变化的国家行动。本文评估了人口、经济增长、能源强度、产业结构、固定资产投资和城市化水平对中国城市碳排放的影响。为此，本文根据不同的发展阶段，通过因素调查将2003年至2017年的36个中国城市分为四种类型（增长型城市、成熟型城市、衰退型城市和再生型城市）。扩展的STIRPAT模型用于评估黄河流域及不同城市层面各种因素对碳排放的影响。通过固定效应模型和具有Driscoll-Kraay标准误的线性回归模型，对整个流域和不同发展阶段的城市进行了面板回归分析。结果表明：（1）研究期间黄河流域碳排放总量持续攀升。然而，2012年后增长率显著放缓。此外，不同城市的碳排放总量和增长率存在差异。（2）除城市化水平对碳排放有显著负面影响外，人口、实际GDP、能源强度、产业结构和固定资产投资对整个流域的碳排放均有显著正向影响。（3）处于不同发展阶段的资源型城市碳排放影响因素存在异质性。基于这些结果，针对不同类型的城市提出了相应政策，以帮助资源型城市实现3060双碳目标。
