Zhao Qing, Heath-Acre Kristen, Collins Daniel, Conway Warren, Weegman Mitch D
University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri, United States.
Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, United States.
PeerJ. 2021 Nov 15;9:e12475. doi: 10.7717/peerj.12475. eCollection 2021.
Knowledge of demography is essential for understanding wildlife population dynamics and developing appropriate conservation plans. However, population survey and demographic data (., capture-recapture) are not always aligned in space and time, hindering our ability to robustly estimate population size and demographic processes. Integrated population models (IPMs) can provide inference for population dynamics with poorly aligned but jointly analysed population and demographic data. In this study, we used an IPM to analyse partially aligned population and demographic data of a migratory shorebird species, the snowy plover (). Snowy plover populations have declined dramatically during the last two decades, yet the demographic mechanisms and environmental drivers of these declines remain poorly understood, hindering development of appropriate conservation strategies. We analysed 21 years (1998-2018) of partially aligned population survey, nest survey, and capture-recapture-resight data in three snowy plover populations (., Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma) in the Southern Great Plains of the US. By using IPMs we aimed to achieve better precision while evaluating the effects of wetland habitat and climatic factors (minimum temperature, wind speed) on snowy plover demography. Our IPM provided reasonable precision for productivity measures even with missing data, but population and survival estimates had greater uncertainty in years without corresponding data. Our model also uncovered the complex relationships between wetland habitat, climate, and demography with reasonable precision. Wetland habitat had positive effects on snowy plover productivity (., clutch size and clutch fate), indicating the importance of protecting wetland habitat under climate change and other human stressors for the conservation of this species. We also found a positive effect of minimum temperature on snowy plover productivity, indicating potential benefits of warmth during night on their population. Based on our results, we suggest prioritizing population and capture-recapture surveys for understanding population dynamics and underlying demographic processes when data collection is limited by time and/or financial resources. Our modelling approach can be used to allocate limited conservation resources for evidence-based decision-making.
了解人口统计学对于理解野生动物种群动态和制定适当的保护计划至关重要。然而，种群调查和人口统计数据（如标记重捕法）在空间和时间上并不总是一致的，这阻碍了我们准确估计种群数量和人口统计过程的能力。综合种群模型（IPMs）可以利用虽不一致但经过联合分析的种群和人口统计数据对种群动态进行推断。在本研究中，我们使用综合种群模型来分析一种迁徙滨鸟——雪鸻（Charadrius nivosus）部分一致的种群和人口统计数据。在过去二十年中，雪鸻的种群数量急剧下降，但其下降的人口统计机制和环境驱动因素仍知之甚少，这阻碍了适当保护策略的制定。我们分析了美国大平原南部三个雪鸻种群（如德克萨斯州、新墨西哥州、俄克拉荷马州）在1998年至2018年这21年间部分一致的种群调查、巢穴调查以及标记重捕 - 再观察数据。通过使用综合种群模型，我们旨在在评估湿地栖息地和气候因素（最低温度、风速）对雪鸻人口统计学的影响时获得更高的精度。即使存在缺失数据，我们的综合种群模型对繁殖率的测量仍提供了合理的精度，但在没有相应数据的年份，种群数量和存活率估计的不确定性更大。我们的模型还以合理的精度揭示了湿地栖息地、气候和人口统计学之间的复杂关系。湿地栖息地对雪鸻的繁殖率（如窝卵数和窝卵命运）有积极影响，这表明在气候变化和其他人类压力源下保护湿地栖息地对于该物种保护的重要性。我们还发现最低温度对雪鸻的繁殖率有积极影响，这表明夜间温暖对其种群可能有好处。基于我们的研究结果，我们建议在数据收集受时间和/或财政资源限制时，优先进行种群和标记重捕调查，以了解种群动态和潜在的人口统计过程。我们的建模方法可用于分配有限的保护资源，以进行基于证据的决策。
