Ringelman Kevin M, Bonczek Elizabeth S, Marty Joseph R, Booth Ashley R, Dopkin Alexandre L
School of Renewable Natural Resources Louisiana State University AgCenter Baton Rouge Louisiana USA.
Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Grand Chenier Louisiana USA.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Nov 2;11(22):15477-15483. doi: 10.1002/ece3.8276. eCollection 2021 Nov.
Tropical cyclones are the most powerful storms on earth, causing catastrophic damage to human lives and infrastructure. Hurricanes also cause wildlife mortality when they make landfall, but the severity of these effects is difficult to quantify because data collection is either logistically impossible or deprioritized in the wake of human tragedy. On August 27, 2020, Hurricane Laura made landfall in southwestern Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 241 kph (150 mph), making it one of the most powerful storms to strike the mainland United States. Hurricane Laura passed directly over the core breeding range of the western Gulf Coast population of Mottled Duck (), during a time when many adult birds were undergoing a simultaneous wing feather molt and were flightless. We used GPS-GSM telemetry data to evaluate survival rates of adult female Mottled Ducks in late summer 2020 (bracketing August 27 by one month on either side) relative to the same period in 2018 and 2019. Mortality was lower in 2018 (12 out of 29; 41%) and 2019 (8 out of 28; 29%) than in 2020 (12 out of 18; 67%), and 7 out of 12 mortalities documented in 2020 occurred when Hurricane Laura made landfall. Survival analyses in program MARK confirmed lower survival probability in 2020, but there was overlap in 85% confidence intervals in all years. This single storm resulted in the death of ~40% of all marked birds in our sample, suggesting that hurricanes have the potential to influence population demographics. In addition, Hurricane Laura resulted in widespread habitat loss and degradation that has reduced available nesting habitat in 2021, and possibly for years to come. The acute and chronic effects of hurricanes may exacerbate Mottled Duck population declines, which may worsen in the face of increasingly frequent and more severe tropical storms.
热带气旋是地球上最强大的风暴，会对人类生命和基础设施造成灾难性破坏。飓风登陆时也会导致野生动物死亡，但这些影响的严重程度难以量化，因为从后勤角度来说，数据收集要么不可能实现，要么在人类悲剧发生后被置于次要地位。2020年8月27日，劳拉飓风在路易斯安那州西南部登陆，最大持续风速为241公里/小时（150英里/小时），成为袭击美国本土的最强风暴之一。劳拉飓风直接掠过西部海湾沿岸花脸鸭种群的核心繁殖区域，当时许多成年鸟类正同时进行翅羽换羽，无法飞行。我们利用GPS-GSM遥测数据评估了2020年夏末成年雌性花脸鸭（在8月27日前后各一个月的时间段内）相对于2018年和2019年同期的存活率。2018年（29只中有12只死亡；死亡率41%）和2019年（28只中有8只死亡；死亡率29%）的死亡率低于2020年（18只中有12只死亡；死亡率67%），2020年记录的12例死亡中有7例发生在劳拉飓风登陆时。MARK程序中的生存分析证实2020年的生存概率较低，但所有年份的85%置信区间存在重叠。这场单一风暴导致我们样本中约40%的所有标记鸟类死亡，这表明飓风有可能影响种群数量统计。此外，劳拉飓风导致栖息地广泛丧失和退化，减少了2021年以及可能在未来数年可用的筑巢栖息地。飓风的急性和慢性影响可能会加剧花脸鸭种群数量的下降，面对越来越频繁和严重的热带风暴，这种下降可能会更加恶化。
