Applied Aviation Sciences, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida; Nicholson School of Communication and Media, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9721-4598.
J Emerg Manag. 2024 Jan-Feb;22(1):33-44. doi: 10.5055/jem.0817.
Hurricane Laura began as a disorganized tropical depression in August 2020. Early forecast guidance showed that the tropical cyclone could either completely dissipate or strengthen to a major hurricane as it approached the United States Gulf Coast. While this uncertainty was known by meteorologists, it was not necessarily communicated to the public in a direct manner. As it turned out, the worst-case scenario was the correct one. The tropical depression rapidly intensified and made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, with sustained winds of 150 mph, making Laura a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Laura's rapid intensification caught some people off guard. Ideally, weather forecasts would have begun warning Louisiana residents to prepare for the possibility of a devastating hurricane in the early stages of tropical cyclone development. No one is suggesting that meteorologists did anything wrong. However, with the benefit of hindsight and decades of scholarly research in risk communication, we can speculate how an ideal forecast would have been written. This paper demonstrates that there are some simple considerations that could be made that might better alert the public to future hurricane worst-case scenarios, even in uncertain situations.
飓风劳拉于 2020 年 8 月最初以无序的热带低气压形式出现。早期的预报指导显示，随着该热带气旋接近美国墨西哥湾沿岸，它要么完全消散，要么在靠近美国墨西哥湾沿岸时增强为一场大型飓风。虽然气象学家已经了解到这一不确定性，但他们并没有以直接的方式向公众传达这一信息。事实证明，最坏的情况是正确的。热带低气压迅速增强，并在路易斯安那州卡梅伦附近登陆，持续风速为每小时 150 英里，使劳拉成为萨菲尔-辛普森飓风等级的四级飓风。劳拉的迅速增强让一些人措手不及。理想情况下，天气预报本应在热带气旋发展的早期就开始警告路易斯安那州居民，为可能发生的破坏性飓风做好准备。没有人认为气象学家做错了什么。然而，有了事后的认识和几十年来在风险沟通方面的学术研究，我们可以推测出一个理想的预报本应如何编写。本文表明，有一些简单的考虑因素可以让公众更好地警惕未来的飓风最坏情况，即使在不确定的情况下也是如此。
