Department of Geography, University of Lagos, Akoka-Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria.
Environ Monit Assess. 2021 Nov 27;193(12):848. doi: 10.1007/s10661-021-09642-6.
The interaction of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change, to a large extent, involves anthropogenic activities. This study was carried out in the derived savannah of Nigeria, a delicate, transition ecological zone between the rainforest and savanna zones where the interaction of LULC and climate change could be well appreciated. Using the remote sensing and GIS, Land Change Modeler (LCM), and multivariate geostatistics tools, the study evaluated coupled interaction between LULC and climate change and assessed the changes in the land use/land cover patterns for the periods 1972, 1986, 2002, and 2019. It also evaluated the present (1941-2019) and future (2020-2050) variability in rainfall patterns and made an attempt to predict the interaction between LULC and climate change in future climate. The results suggest that the urban (built-up) area, waterbody, woodland, and farmland experienced a rapid increase of about 2,400%, 583%, 277%, and 32%, respectively, while the forest cover lost about 39% between 1972 and 2019. Furthermore, the study predicted 46% and 29% reduction in the forested area between 2002 and 2050 and 2019 and 2050, respectively. The study concludes that rainfall will be the major driver of LULC change within the study area under a future climate.
土地利用/土地覆被（LULC）与气候变化的相互作用在很大程度上涉及人为活动。本研究在尼日利亚的衍生热带稀树草原进行，该地区是雨林和热带稀树草原带之间的脆弱过渡生态区，可以很好地了解 LULC 与气候变化的相互作用。本研究使用遥感和 GIS、土地变化模型（LCM）和多元地统计学工具，评估了 LULC 和气候变化之间的耦合相互作用，并评估了 1972 年、1986 年、2002 年和 2019 年期间土地利用/土地覆被模式的变化。它还评估了当前（1941-2019 年）和未来（2020-2050 年）降雨模式的变化，并尝试预测未来气候中 LULC 和气候变化之间的相互作用。结果表明，城市（建成区）、水体、林地和农田分别经历了约 2400%、583%、277%和 32%的快速增长，而森林覆盖在 1972 年至 2019 年间减少了约 39%。此外，研究预测，在未来气候下，2002 年至 2050 年和 2019 年至 2050 年期间，森林面积将分别减少 46%和 29%。研究得出结论，降雨将是研究区未来气候下土地利用/土地覆被变化的主要驱动因素。
