预测孤立性骨浆细胞瘤患者总生存期的预后列线图：一项基于大样本人群的研究

Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival of Solitary Bone Plasmacytoma Patients: A Large Population-Based Study.

作者信息

Feng Gong, Shu Wu-Bin, Li A-Bing

机构信息

School of Medicine, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315211, People's Republic of China.

Department of Orthopedics, Ningbo Yinzhou Second Hospital, Ningbo, 315100, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Int J Gen Med. 2021 Nov 23;14:8621-8630. doi: 10.2147/IJGM.S335976. eCollection 2021.

DOI:10.2147/IJGM.S335976

PMID:34849007

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8627270/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with solitary plasmacytoma of bone (SBP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients diagnosed with SBP between 1993 and 2012 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All eligible patients were randomly allocated to the training sets and the validation sets. The nomogram was developed with the training set and validated with the validation set using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and decision curve analyses (DCA).

RESULTS

Age, marital status, tumor grade, treatment were independent prognostic indicators for OS (P<0.05) and were integrated to construct the nomogram. C-indexes for OS prediction in the training and validation sets were 0.78 and 0.73, respectively. The calibration plots demonstrated good consistency between the predicted and actual survival. DCA demonstrated that the new model has great benefits. In the total cohort, the median OS of patients in the low- and high-risk groups were 12.17 (95% CI 11.92-12.42) and 3.92 (95% CI 2.83-5.01) years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram showed excellent applicability and accuracy, which could be a reliable tool for predicting OS in SBP patients.

摘要

背景

本研究旨在开发一种列线图，以预测骨孤立性浆细胞瘤（SBP）患者的总生存期（OS）。

材料与方法

从监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中收集1993年至2012年间诊断为SBP的患者。所有符合条件的患者被随机分配到训练集和验证集。使用一致性指数（C指数）、校准图和决策曲线分析（DCA），根据训练集开发列线图，并使用验证集进行验证。

结果

年龄、婚姻状况、肿瘤分级、治疗是OS的独立预后指标（P<0.05），并将其整合以构建列线图。训练集和验证集中OS预测的C指数分别为0.78和0.73。校准图显示预测生存与实际生存之间具有良好的一致性。DCA表明新模型具有很大优势。在整个队列中，低风险组和高风险组患者的中位OS分别为12.17（95%CI 11.92-12.42）年和3.92（95%CI 2.83-5.01）年。