Vandoros Sotiris, Kawachi Ichiro
Am J Epidemiol. 2022 Mar 24;191(5):867-873. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwab283.
On May 1, 2018, Scotland introduced a minimum price of 50 pence per unit of alcohol, which led to a reduction in alcohol consumption. As drink-driving is an important risk factor for motor vehicle collisions, we examined whether the minimum alcohol pricing was followed by a decrease in collisions. We took advantage of a case where the minimum price was introduced to 1 population during the study period (Scotland) and another population that served as the control group did not experience this intervention (England and Wales). We used data on the daily number of motor vehicle collisions resulting in death or injury in 2018 and used a differences-in-differences econometric approach, comparing trends before and after the introduction of the minimum price. Controlling for seasonality, we found a small relative decrease in collisions in Scotland compared with England and Wales (difference-in-difference interaction coefficient, -0.35; 95% confidence interval: -0.65, -0.04; P = 0.03). Our results suggest that there was a relative decrease in motor vehicle collisions in Scotland of between 1.52 and 1.90, on average, in the first months after the introduction of the policy. More research is needed to understand any long-term impacts of minimum alcohol pricing.
2018年5月1日，苏格兰推出了每单位酒精50便士的最低限价，这导致了酒精消费量的减少。由于酒后驾车是机动车碰撞事故的一个重要风险因素，我们研究了最低酒精限价实施后碰撞事故是否减少。我们利用了这样一个案例，即在研究期间向一个人群（苏格兰）引入了最低限价，而作为对照组的另一人群（英格兰和威尔士）没有经历这种干预。我们使用了2018年导致死亡或受伤的机动车碰撞事故每日数量的数据，并采用了双重差分计量经济学方法，比较了引入最低限价前后的趋势。在控制季节性因素后，我们发现与英格兰和威尔士相比，苏格兰的碰撞事故有小幅相对减少（双重差分交互系数为-0.35；95%置信区间：-0.65，-0.04；P = 0.03）。我们的结果表明，在政策实施后的头几个月里，苏格兰机动车碰撞事故平均相对减少了1.52至1.90起。需要更多研究来了解最低酒精限价的任何长期影响。
