评估苏格兰实施最低单位定价 (MUP) 3 年后对酒类销售的影响：一项对照中断时间序列研究。

Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) on alcohol sales after 3 years of implementation in Scotland: A controlled interrupted time-series study.

机构信息

Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK.

School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.

出版信息

Addiction. 2024 Aug;119(8):1378-1386. doi: 10.1111/add.16492. Epub 2024 Apr 29.

DOI:10.1111/add.16492

PMID:38685192

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

On 1 May 2018, Scotland introduced minimum unit pricing (MUP), a strength-based floor price below which alcohol cannot be sold, throughout all alcoholic beverages. The legislation necessitates an evaluation of its impact across a range of outcomes that will inform whether MUP will continue beyond its sixth year. We measured the impact of MUP on per-adult alcohol sales (as a proxy for consumption) after 3 years of implementation.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Controlled interrupted time-series regression was used to assess the impact of MUP on alcohol sales in Scotland after 3 years of implementation, with England and Wales (EW) being the control group. In adjusted analyses, we included household disposable income, on-trade alcohol sales (in off-trade analyses) and substitution between drink categories (in drink category analyses) as covariates.

MEASUREMENTS

Weekly data were assessed on the volume of pure alcohol sold in Scotland and EW between January 2013 and May 2021, expressed as litres of pure alcohol per adult. The impact of MUP on total (on- and off-trade combined), off-trade and on-trade alcohol sales was assessed separately.

RESULTS

The introduction of MUP in Scotland was associated with a 3.0% (95% confidence interval = 1.8-4.2%) net reduction in total alcohol sales per adult after adjustment for the best available geographical control, disposable income and substitution. This reflects a 1.1% fall in Scotland in contrast to a 2.4% increase in EW. The reduction in total alcohol sales in Scotland was driven by reduced sales of beer, spirits, cider and perry. The reduction in total sales was due to reductions in sales of alcohol through the off-trade. There was no evidence of any change in on-trade alcohol sales.

CONCLUSION

Minimum unit pricing has been effective in reducing population-level alcohol sales in Scotland in the 3 years since implementation.

摘要

背景与目的

2018 年 5 月 1 日，苏格兰在所有酒精饮料中引入了最低单位定价（MUP），即低于该价格的酒类不得销售。该立法需要评估其在一系列结果方面的影响，以便确定 MUP 是否会在第六年之后继续实施。我们测量了实施 3 年后 MUP 对成人酒精销售（作为消费的替代指标）的影响。

设计、设置和参与者：使用控制中断时间序列回归来评估实施 3 年后 MUP 对苏格兰酒精销售的影响，英格兰和威尔士（EW）为对照组。在调整后的分析中，我们将家庭可支配收入、现货交易酒精销售（在现货交易分析中）和饮料类别之间的替代（在饮料类别分析中）作为协变量纳入其中。

测量

从 2013 年 1 月至 2021 年 5 月，每周评估苏格兰和 EW 每成年人体内销售的纯酒精量，以每成年人体内的纯酒精升数表示。分别评估 MUP 对总酒精（现货和现货交易总和）、现货交易和现货交易酒精销售的影响。

结果

在调整最佳地理位置控制、可支配收入和替代因素后，苏格兰引入 MUP 与成年人总酒精销售量平均减少 3.0%（95%置信区间=1.8-4.2%）相关。这反映了苏格兰的销售额下降了 1.1%，而 EW 的销售额增长了 2.4%。苏格兰总酒精销售量的减少是由于啤酒、烈酒、苹果酒和梨酒销售量的减少所致。总销售额的减少是由于现货交易中酒精销售额的减少。现货交易中酒精销售额没有变化的迹象。