Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
HIV Prevention Trials Network Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Clin Infect Dis. 2022 Aug 24;75(1):163-169. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciab976.
The plan for Ending the HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) Epidemic (EHE) in the United States aims to reduce new infections by 75% by 2025 and by 90% by 2030. For EHE to be successful, it is important to accurately measure changes in numbers of new HIV infections after 5 and 10 years (to determine whether the EHE goals have been achieved) but also over shorter timescales (to monitor progress and intensify prevention efforts if required). In this viewpoint, we aim to demonstrate why the method used to monitor progress toward the EHE goals must be carefully considered. We briefly describe and discuss different methods to estimate numbers of new HIV infections based on longitudinal cohort studies, cross-sectional incidence surveys, and routine surveillance data. We particularly focus on identifying conditions under which unadjusted and adjusted estimates based on routine surveillance data can be used to estimate changes in new HIV infections.
美国终结艾滋病疫情计划旨在到 2025 年减少 75%的新发感染，到 2030 年减少 90%的新发感染。要想终结艾滋病疫情取得成功，重要的是准确衡量 5 年和 10 年后新的艾滋病病毒感染人数变化（以确定是否实现了艾滋病疫情终结目标），同时还需要衡量更短时间内的变化（以便在必要时监测进展情况并加强预防工作）。在这篇观点文章中，我们旨在论证为何必须仔细考虑用于监测艾滋病疫情终结目标进展的方法。我们简要描述和讨论了基于纵向队列研究、横断面发病率调查和常规监测数据来估计新的艾滋病病毒感染人数的不同方法。我们特别关注确定在哪些条件下，基于常规监测数据的未经调整和调整后的估计数可用于估计新的艾滋病病毒感染人数的变化。
