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基于遗传算法径向基函数神经网络(RBFNN-GA)的宏观经济图像分析与 GDP 预测。

Macroeconomic Image Analysis and GDP Prediction Based on the Genetic Algorithm Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN-GA).

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, Changsha Normal University, Changsha 410100, China.

School of Computer Engineering and Applied Mathematics, Changsha University, Changsha 410003, Hunan, China.

出版信息

Comput Intell Neurosci. 2021 Nov 22;2021:2000159. doi: 10.1155/2021/2000159. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

The prediction of gross domestic product (GDP) is a research hotspot, and its importance is self-evident. Its complex internal change mechanism also increases the difficulty of analyzing GDP data. The genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to the parameter design of the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) based on genetic algorithm optimization (RBFNN-GA). An economic zone GDP image prediction model is proposed, which realizes the optimal design of the center vector, the base width vector of the RBFNN node function, and the weight between the hidden layer and output layer. Based on the GDP data over the years, this paper uses the RBFNN-GA prediction model to analyze and predict the GDP image and compares the image prediction results. The results show that the genetic algorithm is used to optimize RBFNN, which gives full play to the advantages of the two algorithms. The relative error of the RBFNN-GA prediction model is only 3.52%. Compared with the prediction results, the prediction accuracy is significantly higher than the ARIMA time series model and GM (1,1) model.

摘要

国内生产总值(GDP)的预测是研究热点,其重要性不言而喻。其复杂的内部变化机制也增加了 GDP 数据的分析难度。将遗传算法(GA)应用于基于遗传算法优化的径向基函数神经网络(RBFNN)的参数设计(RBFNN-GA)。提出了一种经济区 GDP 图像预测模型,实现了 RBFNN 节点函数中心向量、基宽向量和隐藏层与输出层之间权重的最优设计。本文基于多年的 GDP 数据,利用 RBFNN-GA 预测模型对 GDP 图像进行分析和预测,并比较图像预测结果。结果表明,遗传算法优化 RBFNN 充分发挥了两种算法的优势。RBFNN-GA 预测模型的相对误差仅为 3.52%。与预测结果相比,预测精度明显高于 ARIMA 时间序列模型和 GM(1,1)模型。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/81dd/8629678/38c59d5745cb/CIN2021-2000159.001.jpg

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