Departamento de Economia & GERA, Universidad del Valle (UNIVALLE), Cali, Colombia.
Departamento de Economia & NIPE, Universidade do Minho, Braga, Portugal.
PLoS One. 2021 Dec 2;16(12):e0259314. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259314. eCollection 2021.
The decades before 1990 were dramatic for Latin American economies. However, from 1990 onwards, a set of policies followed by the various states in the region acheived economic stabilization with real income recovery. The attribution of this success has been disputed by politicians, economists and officials from international economic support institutions. This work will analyze the responsibility for this success in 4 economies in the region (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). Through the combined analysis of ARDL, Markov states and structural breaks, we highlight different sources of responsibility in different periods. Additionally, detailing the states of each regime, we verify the duration of the regimes related to inflation rates and to interest rates in the region. We identify specific governments as associated with moments of economic stabilization in the region, so the hypothesis of the political cycle cannot be rejected for the set of results achieved. As policy implication, we claim that Taylor rules are endogenous to Political Budget Cycles and so stabilization plans are restricted to political tenures.
20 世纪 90 年代以前，拉丁美洲经济经历了巨大的变革。然而，从 1990 年开始，该地区各国采取的一系列政策实现了经济稳定和实际收入的恢复。对于这一成功，政治家、经济学家和国际经济支持机构的官员们存在争议。本研究将分析该地区四个经济体（巴西、哥伦比亚、墨西哥和秘鲁）的成功责任。通过对 ARDL、马尔可夫状态和结构断裂的综合分析，我们在不同时期强调了不同的责任来源。此外，详细描述每个制度的状态，我们验证了与该地区通货膨胀率和利率相关的制度的持续时间。我们确定了与该地区经济稳定相关的特定政府，因此，不能拒绝与所取得的一系列结果相关的政治周期假说。作为政策影响，我们声称泰勒规则是政治预算周期的内生变量，因此稳定计划仅限于政治任期。
