Institute of Political Science, P. Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 15;16(3):e0248432. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248432. eCollection 2021.
This paper analyzes the extent to which economic policy uncertainty affects presidential approval in four Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico). Using panel (time-series cross-sectional) estimation methods, we show that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on presidential approval in our sample. A one-standard-deviation increase in the level of economic uncertainty reduces presidential approval by approximately 12 percent. Our results are consistent with the political economy model of Alesina et al. (1993), which shows that voters are less likely to re-elect the incumbent when faced with uncertainty about economic policy. Incumbent competence signalling can exarcerbate this effect.
本文分析了经济政策不确定性在多大程度上影响了四个拉丁美洲国家（巴西、智利、哥伦比亚和墨西哥）的总统支持率。我们使用面板（时间序列横截面）估计方法表明，在我们的样本中，经济政策不确定性对总统支持率有负面影响。经济不确定性水平每增加一个标准差，总统支持率就会降低约 12%。我们的结果与 Alesina 等人（1993 年）的政治经济学模型一致，该模型表明，当面临经济政策不确定性时，选民不太可能再次选举现任总统。现任者的能力信号可能会加剧这种影响。
