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疫苗接种对埃塞俄比亚新冠病毒传播动态的影响。

Effect of vaccination on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

作者信息

Suthar D L, Habenom Haile, Aychluh Mulualem

机构信息

Department of mathematics, Wollo university, P.O. box: 1145, Dessie, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Results Phys. 2022 Jan;32:105022. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.105022. Epub 2021 Nov 27.

DOI:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.105022
PMID:34868831
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8627301/
Abstract

Governments and health officials are eager to gain a thorough understanding of the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in order to devise strategies to mitigate the pandemic's negative effects. As a result, we created a new fractional order mathematical model to investigate the dynamics of Covid-19 vaccine transmission in Ethiopia. The nonlinear system of differential equations for the model is represented using Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative in Caputo sense and the Jacobi spectral collocation method is used to convert this system into an algebraic system of equations, which is then solved using inexact Newton's method. The fundamental reproduction number, for the proposed model is determined using the next generation matrix approach.

摘要

政府和卫生官员渴望深入了解新冠病毒传播的动态,以便制定策略减轻疫情的负面影响。因此,我们创建了一个新的分数阶数学模型来研究埃塞俄比亚新冠疫苗传播的动态。该模型的非线性微分方程组采用Caputo意义下的阿坦加纳-巴莱努分数阶导数表示,并使用雅可比谱配置法将该系统转化为代数方程组,然后用不精确牛顿法求解。所提模型的基本再生数使用下一代矩阵方法确定。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/de3ef0cccce3/gr10_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/5cbea17bbe35/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/452d8c2ea1e1/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/e6a0adc44694/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/31cd2f506e69/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/d4650a8e27da/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/df6c72bc76ba/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/e9026ebc23eb/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/fb065c5d95f0/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/087e3e2c3660/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/de3ef0cccce3/gr10_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/5cbea17bbe35/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/452d8c2ea1e1/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/e6a0adc44694/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/31cd2f506e69/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/d4650a8e27da/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/df6c72bc76ba/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/e9026ebc23eb/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/fb065c5d95f0/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/087e3e2c3660/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d6b8/8627301/de3ef0cccce3/gr10_lrg.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing.纳入环境因素和社交距离的COVID-19动态SEIR模型。
BMC Res Notes. 2020 Jul 23;13(1):352. doi: 10.1186/s13104-020-05192-1.
2
The novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China.中国武汉新型冠状病毒疫情。
Glob Health Res Policy. 2020 Mar 2;5:6. doi: 10.1186/s41256-020-00135-6. eCollection 2020.
评估非药物和药物干预措施对埃塞俄比亚 COVID-19 遏制结果的动态影响。
PLoS One. 2022 Jul 26;17(7):e0271231. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271231. eCollection 2022.