Department of Economics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Department of History, Politics and Political Economy, Regis University, Denver, CO, United States.
Front Public Health. 2021 Nov 16;9:736347. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.736347. eCollection 2021.
This paper used Our World data for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) death count, test data, stringency, and transmission count and prepared a path model for COVID-19 deaths. We augmented the model with age structure-related variables and comorbidity non-communicable diseases for 117 countries of the world for September 23, 2021, on a cross-section basis. A broad-based global quantitative study incorporating these two prominent channels with regional variation was unavailable in the existing literature. Old age and comorbidity were identified as two prime determinants of COVID-19 mortality. The path model showed that after controlling for these factors, one increase in the proportion of persons above 65, above 70, or of median age raised COVID-19 mortality by more than 0.12 s for 117 countries. The regional intensity of death is alarmingly high in South America, Europe, and North America compared with Oceania. After controlling for regions, the figure was raised to 0.213, which was even higher. For old age, the incremental coefficient was the highest for South America (0.564), and Europe (0.314), which were substantially higher than in Oceania. The comorbidity channel non-communicable diseases illustrated that one increase in non-communicable disease intensity increased COVID-19 mortality by 0.132 for the whole sample. The regional figure for the non-communicable disease was 0.594 for South America and 0.358 for Europe compared with the benchmark region Oceania. The results were statistically significant at a 10% level of significance or above. This suggested that we should prioritize vaccinations for the elderly and people with comorbidity non-communicable diseases like heart disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes. Further attention should be given to South America and Europe, which are the worst affected regions of the world.
本文使用 Our World 数据中的新冠病毒疾病（COVID-19）死亡人数、检测数据、严格程度和传播数据，为 COVID-19 死亡人数建立了路径模型。我们在模型中加入了与年龄结构相关的变量和非传染性疾病共病，并为世界上 117 个国家于 2021 年 9 月 23 日进行了横截面分析。在现有文献中，没有一项广泛的全球定量研究同时考虑到这两个重要渠道和区域差异。在本研究中，高龄和共病被确定为 COVID-19 死亡率的两个主要决定因素。路径模型表明，在控制这些因素后，117 个国家中，65 岁以上、70 岁以上或中位数年龄每增加 1%，COVID-19 死亡率就会增加 0.12 秒以上。与大洋洲相比，南美洲、欧洲和北美洲的区域死亡强度高得令人震惊。在控制区域后，这一数字上升到 0.213，甚至更高。对于高龄人群，南美洲（0.564）和欧洲（0.314）的增量系数最高，远高于大洋洲。共病通道非传染性疾病表明，整个样本中，非传染性疾病强度每增加 1%，COVID-19 死亡率就会增加 0.132。非传染性疾病的区域数据为南美洲 0.594，欧洲 0.358，而基准区域大洋洲为 0.132。这些结果在 10%的显著水平或以上具有统计学意义。这表明我们应该优先为老年人和患有心脏病、癌症、慢性呼吸道疾病和糖尿病等非传染性疾病共病的人接种疫苗。应进一步关注南美洲和欧洲这两个受 COVID-19 影响最严重的地区。
