Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Unité Modèles pour l'Ecotoxicologie et la Toxicologie (METO), Parc ALATA BP2, 60550 Verneuil en Halatte, France.
Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Unité ISAE, Parc ALATA BP2, 60550 Verneuil en Halatte, France.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Feb 20;808:152149. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152149. Epub 2021 Dec 4.
The decrease in levels of lead in air and drinking water over the last 40 years has resulted in an overall decrease in blood lead levels (BLLs). However, there is no known safe level of lead regarding developmental effects in children. This paper maps predicted BLLs of children in France, resulting from a simulated chronic exposure in two steps, with the aim of identifying areas with environmentally overexposed populations. Probabilistic estimates of BLLs based on environmental contamination were obtained and compared to biomonitoring data. First, the contribution of various environmental exposure pathways was estimated using a multimedia exposure model: spatialized data on soil, drinking water and air contamination, together with data on food contamination and ingestion, was joined using geostatistical approaches. In a second step, a Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic (PBTK) model provided estimates of BLLs. Probabilistic estimates of BLLs were obtained by simulating uncertainty and variability of exposure levels, physiological characteristics and lead-specific parameters in the PBTK model. The median and 95th percentile of predicted BLLs in children aged 1 to 11 were compared to recent biomonitoring data obtained in France in young children (SATURNINF study): median predictions were overestimated in infants and in agreement with median observed BLLs in children aged 3 to 6. Upper bounds of predicted BLLs were protective due to uncertainties in exposure estimates. The main source of exposure appeared to be drinking water in children over 2 years old, and vegetal food and milk in children under 2 years old. Although elevated drinking water lead levels were not related to large geographical areas, the relatively fine resolution map also pinpointed geographical areas of concern due to elevated soil lead levels.
在过去的 40 年中，空气中和饮用水中的铅含量下降导致血铅水平（BLL）总体下降。然而，对于儿童发育影响而言，铅含量没有已知的安全水平。本文通过模拟慢性暴露，分两步绘制了法国儿童的预测 BLL 地图，旨在确定环境暴露人群集中的地区。根据环境污染获得了 BLL 的概率估计值，并与生物监测数据进行了比较。首先，使用多媒体暴露模型估计了各种环境暴露途径的贡献：使用地统计学方法将土壤、饮用水和空气污染的空间化数据与食物污染和摄入数据结合起来。在第二步中，使用生理毒物动力学（PBTK）模型提供 BLL 的估计值。通过模拟 PBTK 模型中暴露水平、生理特征和铅特异性参数的不确定性和变异性来获得 BLL 的概率估计值。将 1 至 11 岁儿童的预测 BLL 中位数和第 95 个百分位数与法国最近在幼儿中获得的生物监测数据（SATURNINF 研究）进行了比较：婴儿期的预测中位数偏高，且与 3 至 6 岁儿童的观察到的 BLL 中位数一致。由于暴露估计存在不确定性，预测 BLL 的上限具有保护作用。对于 2 岁以上的儿童，主要的暴露源似乎是饮用水，对于 2 岁以下的儿童，主要的暴露源是植物性食物和牛奶。尽管饮用水中铅含量升高与大面积地理区域无关，但相对精细的分辨率地图也确定了由于土壤铅含量升高而引起关注的地理区域。
