CO 浓度升高缓和了气候变化对马达加斯加未来竹类分布的影响。
Elevated CO moderates the impact of climate change on future bamboo distribution in Madagascar.
机构信息
Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Nature Conservation, Chinese Academy of Forestry, China; Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA; Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA; Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
出版信息
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Mar 1;810:152235. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152235. Epub 2021 Dec 8.
The distribution of bamboo is sensitive to climate change and is also potentially affected by increasing atmospheric CO concentrations due to its C3 photosynthetic pathway. Yet the effect of CO in climate impact assessments of potential changes in bamboo distribution has to date been overlooked. In this study, we proposed a simple and quantitative method to incorporate the impact of atmospheric CO concentration into a species distribution modeling framework. To do so, we implemented 10 niche modeling algorithms with regionally downscaled climatic variables and combined field campaign observations. We assessed future climate impacts on the distribution of an economically and ecologically important and widely distributed bamboo species in Madagascar, and examined the effect of increasing CO on future projections. Our results suggested that future climatic changes negatively impact potential bamboo distribution in Madagascar, leading to a decline of 34.8% of climatic suitability and a decline of 63.6 ± 3.2% in suitable areas towards 2100 under RCP 8.5. However, increasing atmosphere CO offsets the climate impact for bamboo, and led to a smaller reduction of 19.8% in suitability and a potential distribution expansion of +111.6 ± 9.8% in newly suitable areas. We also found that the decline in climatic suitability for bamboo was related to increasing monthly potential evapotranspiration of the warmest quarter and minimum temperature of the warmest month. Conversely, the decreasing isothermality and increasing precipitation of the warmest quarter contributed to projected increase in bamboo-suitable areas. Our study suggested that elevated CO may mitigate the decrease in climatic suitability and increase bamboo-suitable areas, through enhancing water use efficiency and decreasing potential evapotranspiration. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the CO effect on future plant species distributions, and provide a mechanistic approach to do so for ecosystems constrained by water.
竹子的分布对气候变化敏感，由于其 C3 光合作用途径，也可能受到大气 CO2 浓度升高的影响。然而，迄今为止，在评估竹子分布潜在变化对气候的影响时，CO2 的影响在气候影响评估中一直被忽视。在这项研究中，我们提出了一种简单而定量的方法，将大气 CO2 浓度的影响纳入物种分布模型框架中。为此，我们使用区域降尺度的气候变量和实地观测数据结合了 10 种生态位模型算法。我们评估了未来气候变化对马达加斯加一种经济和生态上重要且广泛分布的竹种分布的影响，并研究了 CO2 增加对未来预测的影响。我们的结果表明，未来的气候变化对马达加斯加的潜在竹子分布产生负面影响，导致气候适宜性下降 34.8%，到 2100 年在 RCP8.5 情景下适宜面积减少 63.6±3.2%。然而，大气 CO2 的增加抵消了竹子的气候影响，导致适宜性减少 19.8%，新适宜区的潜在分布扩张+111.6±9.8%。我们还发现，竹子的气候适宜性下降与最暖季度的月潜在蒸散量和最暖月的最低温度的增加有关。相反，最暖季度的等温性降低和降水量增加有助于预测竹子适宜区的增加。我们的研究表明，由于提高了水利用效率和降低了潜在蒸散量，CO2 的升高可能会减轻气候适宜性的下降并增加竹子适宜区。我们的研究结果强调了在评估未来植物物种分布时考虑 CO2 影响的重要性，并为受水限制的生态系统提供了一种考虑 CO2 影响的机制方法。
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