State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Key Laboratory of Carbon Cycling in Forest Ecosystems and Carbon Sequestration of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; School of Environmental and Resources Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Key Laboratory of Carbon Cycling in Forest Ecosystems and Carbon Sequestration of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; School of Environmental and Resources Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
J Environ Manage. 2019 Oct 15;248:109265. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109265. Epub 2019 Jul 25.
Understanding the impact and restriction of climate change on potential distribution of bamboo forest is crucial for sustainable management of bamboo forest and bamboo-based economic development. In this study, climatic variables and maximum entropy model were used to simulate the potential distribution of bamboo forest in China under the future climate scenarios. Seven climatic variables, such as Spring precipitation, Summer precipitation, Autumn precipitation, average annual relative humidity, Autumn average temperature, average annual temperature range and annual total radiation, were selected as input variables of maximum entropy model based on the relative importance of those climate variables for predicting bamboo forest presence. The suitable ranges of the seven climatic variables for potential distribution of bamboo forest were 337-794 mm, 496-705 mm, 213-929 mm, 74.3%-83.4%, 16.6-23.8 °C, 2.3-10.1 °C and 3.2 × 10-4.3 × 10 W m, respectively. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the suitable area of bamboo forest growth first increased and then decreased, and showed range contractions towards the interior and expansions towards southwest in China. The results of the present study can serve as a useful reference to dynamic monitoring of the spatial distribution and sustainable utilization of bamboo forest in the future under climate change.
了解气候变化对竹林潜在分布的影响和限制，对于竹林的可持续管理和以竹为基础的经济发展至关重要。本研究采用气候变量和最大熵模型，模拟了未来气候情景下中国竹林的潜在分布。基于气候变量对预测竹林存在的相对重要性，选择了春降水量、夏降水量、秋降水量、年平均相对湿度、秋平均温度、年平均温度范围和年总辐射等 7 个气候变量作为最大熵模型的输入变量。竹林潜在分布的 7 个气候变量的适宜范围分别为 337-794mm、496-705mm、213-929mm、74.3%-83.4%、16.6-23.8°C、2.3-10.1°C 和 3.2×10-4.3×10Wm。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 气候情景下，竹林生长的适宜面积先增加后减少，在中国境内向内陆收缩，向西南扩张。本研究结果可为未来气候变化下竹林空间分布的动态监测和可持续利用提供有益参考。
