Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2022 Jun 1;116(6):555-563. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/trab174.
The construction of spatio-temporal models can be either descriptive or dynamic. In this study we aim to evaluate the differences in model fitting between a descriptive model and a dynamic model of the transmission for intestinal schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma japonicum in Guichi, Anhui Province, China. The parasitological data at the village level from 1991 to 2014 were obtained by cross-sectional surveys. We used the fixed rank kriging (FRK) model, a descriptive model, and the integro-differential equation (IDE) model, a dynamic model, to explore the space-time changes of schistosomiasis japonica. In both models, the average daily precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index are significantly positively associated with schistosomiasis japonica prevalence, while the distance to water bodies, the hours of daylight and the land surface temperature at daytime were significantly negatively associated. The overall root mean square prediction error of the IDE and FRK models was 0.0035 and 0.0054, respectively, and the correlation reflected by Pearson's correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed values for the IDE model (0.71; p<0.01) was larger than that for the FRK model (0.53; p=0.02). The IDE model fits better in capturing the geographic variation of schistosomiasis japonica. Dynamic spatio-temporal models have the advantage of quantifying the process of disease transmission and may provide more accurate predictions.
时空模型的构建可以是描述性的，也可以是动态的。本研究旨在评估描述性模型和中国安徽省贵池县日本血吸虫病传播的动态模型在拟合模型方面的差异。1991 年至 2014 年的寄生虫学村级数据通过横断面调查获得。我们使用固定秩克立格（FRK）模型（描述性模型）和积分微分方程（IDE）模型（动态模型）来探索日本血吸虫病的时空变化。在这两种模型中，日均降水量和归一化植被差异指数与日本血吸虫病流行率呈显著正相关，而与水体距离、日照时间和日间地表温度呈显著负相关。IDE 和 FRK 模型的总体均方根预测误差分别为 0.0035 和 0.0054，皮尔逊相关系数反映的 IDE 模型预测值与观测值之间的相关性（0.71;p<0.01）大于 FRK 模型（0.53;p=0.02）。IDE 模型在捕捉日本血吸虫病的地理变化方面拟合得更好。动态时空模型具有量化疾病传播过程的优势，可能提供更准确的预测。
