Murphy E, Lindesay J, Grundy E
Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1986 Oct;43(10):969-76. doi: 10.1001/archpsyc.1986.01800100063009.
In a cohort analysis of suicides recorded in England and Wales from 1921 to 1980, there was no discernible trend across the younger cohorts, but there was a fall in the suicide rates of successive older cohorts over this period. The impact of period events (eg, World War II and the detoxification of domestic gas) is demonstrated in these cohorts. In addition to the period effects, there was evidence of a more prolonged cohort effect on suicide rates of the middle-aged and elderly associated with these events. Little relationship was found between early and later suicide rates within cohorts, casting doubt on the usefulness of predicting the future rates of cohorts from their early behavior.
在一项对1921年至1980年英格兰和威尔士记录的自杀事件的队列分析中，较年轻队列中没有明显趋势，但在此期间，连续几代较老队列的自杀率有所下降。这些队列显示了时期事件（如第二次世界大战和家用煤气解毒）的影响。除了时期效应外，有证据表明这些事件对中年人和老年人的自杀率有更持久的队列效应。队列内早期和后期自杀率之间几乎没有关系，这让人怀疑从队列早期行为预测其未来自杀率的有效性。
