Chemical and Environmental Bioprocess Engineering Group, Natural Resources Institute (IRENA), University of Leon, 24071 León, Spain.
Chemical and Environmental Bioprocess Engineering Group, Natural Resources Institute (IRENA), University of Leon, 24071 León, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Mar 10;811:152240. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152240. Epub 2021 Dec 8.
Herein pyrolysis, torrefaction and hydrothermal carbonization of olive tree pruning were compared from an economic perspective. For this economic comparison a hypothetical industrial plant of 1250 kg/h of capacity was selected, and the profitability analysis was performed through the discounted cash flow method. A baseline scenario was defined, which serves for basis of later comparison. Results show that under these circumstances, none of the alternatives are profitable, with net present values between -37 M€ and -45 M€. Therefore, different scenarios were studied regarding either the reduction of the associate costs or the improvement of the revenues to analyze the negative economic outputs obtained in the baseline scenario. From the revenues side, breakeven prices for the different solid products between 1.14 and 1.35 €/kg are needed to reach profitability. To reach such values, either subsidies from governments or greater selling product prices are required. When examining the associated costs share, the energy consumption is the main cost factor (representing between 70 and 90% of the total, depending on the technology). This means that a variation on the rest of the parameters will not significantly affect the overall performance. Covering the total investment needed for the plants would still present negative net present values (around -34 M€ for the three alternatives). Similarly, even if the price of electricity could be reduced to 0.02 €/kWh, none of the alternatives would reach profitability. This study reveals the importance of finding economic solutions to evolve towards circular economy societies.
本文从经济角度比较了橄榄树修剪物的热解、干馏和水热碳化。为了进行经济比较，选择了一个假设的 1250 公斤/小时产能的工业工厂，并通过折现现金流法进行了盈利分析。定义了一个基准情景，作为以后比较的基础。结果表明，在这些情况下，没有一种选择是盈利的，净现值在-3700 万欧元至-4500 万欧元之间。因此，研究了不同的情景，要么降低相关成本，要么提高收入，以分析基准情景中获得的负面经济产出。从收入方面来看，不同固体产品的盈亏平衡价格需要在 1.14 欧元/公斤至 1.35 欧元/公斤之间，才能实现盈利。要达到这些价值，要么需要政府补贴，要么需要提高产品销售价格。在考察相关成本份额时，能源消耗是主要的成本因素（占总成本的 70%至 90%，具体取决于技术）。这意味着其他参数的变化不会对整体性能产生重大影响。即使能够覆盖工厂所需的全部投资，仍将呈现负的净现值（三种替代方案的净现值约为-3400 万欧元）。同样，即使电价能够降低到 0.02 欧元/千瓦时，也没有一种替代方案能够盈利。这项研究揭示了寻找经济解决方案以向循环经济社会发展的重要性。
