Department of Sociology, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Demography. 2022 Feb 1;59(1):221-246. doi: 10.1215/00703370-9629146.
Although a growing literature explores the relationship between migration and fertility, far less scholarship has examined how migrant childbearing varies over time, including across migrant cohorts. I extend previous research by exploring migrant-cohort differences in fertility and the role of changing composition by education and type of family migration. Using 1984-2016 German Socio-Economic Panel data, I investigate the transition into first, second, and third birth among foreign-born women in West Germany. Results from an event-history analysis reveal that education and type of family migration-including marriage migration and family reunions-contribute to differences in first birth across migrant cohorts. Specifically, more rapid entry into first birth among recent migrants from Turkey stems from a greater representation of marriage migrants across arrival cohorts, while increasing education is associated with reduced first birth propensities among recent migrants from Southern Europe. I also find variation in the risk of higher parity transitions across migrant cohorts, particularly lower third birth risks among recent arrivals from Turkey, likely a result of changing exposures within origin and destination contexts. These findings suggest that as political and socioeconomic circumstances vary within origin and destination contexts, selection, adaptation, and socialization processes jointly shape childbearing behavior.
尽管越来越多的文献探讨了移民与生育之间的关系，但很少有学术研究考察移民生育随时间的变化，包括不同移民群体的变化。我通过探讨生育方面的移民群体差异以及教育和家庭移民类型变化对生育的作用，扩展了以往的研究。我使用了 1984-2016 年德国社会经济面板数据，调查了西德外国出生女性首次、二次和三次生育的过渡情况。事件历史分析的结果表明，教育和家庭移民类型——包括婚姻移民和家庭团聚——导致了不同移民群体首次生育的差异。具体来说，来自土耳其的最近移民中更多的是婚姻移民，这导致他们更快地进入首次生育，而来自南欧的最近移民受教育程度的提高与首次生育意愿的降低有关。我还发现不同移民群体之间较高生育阶段过渡的风险存在差异，特别是来自土耳其的最近移民的第三次生育风险较低，这可能是原籍国和目的地国的情况变化导致的。这些发现表明，由于原籍国和目的地国的政治和社会经济情况不同，选择、适应和社会化过程共同塑造了生育行为。
