Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford, California, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2022 Feb;28(4):1315-1331. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15991. Epub 2021 Dec 13.
The sustainability of global seafood supply to meet increasing demand is facing several challenges, including increasing consumption levels due to a growing human population, fisheries resources over-exploitation and climate change. Whilst growth in seafood production from capture fisheries is limited, global mariculture production is expanding. However, climate change poses risks to the potential seafood production from mariculture. Here, we apply a global mariculture production model that accounts for changing ocean conditions, suitable marine area for farming, fishmeal and fish oil production, farmed species dietary demand, farmed fish price and global seafood demand to project mariculture production under two climate and socio-economic scenarios. We include 85 farmed marine fish and mollusc species, representing about 70% of all mariculture production in 2015. Results show positive global mariculture production changes by the mid and end of the 21 century relative to the 2000s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario with an increase of 17%±5 and 33%±6, respectively. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, an increase of 8%±5 is projected, with production peaking by mid-century and declining by 16%±5 towards the end of the 21 century. More than 25% of mariculture-producing nations are projected to lose 40%-90% of their current mariculture production potential under SSP5-8.5 by mid-century. Projected impacts are mainly due to the direct ocean warming effects on farmed species and suitable marine areas, and the indirect impacts of changing availability of forage fishes supplies to produce aquafeed. Fishmeal replacement with alternative protein can lower climate impacts on a subset of finfish production. However, such adaptation measures do not apply to regions dominated by non-feed-based farming (i.e. molluscs) and regions losing substantial marine areas suitable for mariculture. Our study highlights the importance of strong mitigation efforts and the need for different climate adaptation options tailored to the diversity of mariculture systems, to support climate-resilient mariculture development.
全球海鲜供应的可持续性以满足不断增长的需求面临着几个挑战，包括由于人口增长导致的消费水平不断提高、渔业资源过度开发和气候变化。虽然捕捞渔业的海鲜产量增长有限，但全球海水养殖产量正在扩大。然而，气候变化对海水养殖的潜在海鲜产量构成了风险。在这里，我们应用了一种全球海水养殖生产模型，该模型考虑了不断变化的海洋条件、适合养殖的海洋区域、鱼粉和鱼油生产、养殖物种的饮食需求、养殖鱼类价格和全球海鲜需求，以预测在两种气候和社会经济情景下的海水养殖产量。我们包括了 85 种养殖的海洋鱼类和贝类，代表了 2015 年所有海水养殖产量的约 70%。结果表明，相对于 2000 年代，在 SSP1-2.6 情景下，到 21 世纪中叶和本世纪末，全球海水养殖产量将出现正增长，分别增长 17%±5%和 33%±6%。然而，在 SSP5-8.5 情景下，预计增长 8%±5%，产量在本世纪中叶达到峰值，到 21 世纪末下降 16%±5%。到本世纪中叶，预计超过 25%的海水养殖生产国将失去目前海水养殖生产潜力的 40%-90%。在 SSP5-8.5 情景下，预计影响主要是由于直接的海洋变暖对养殖物种和适宜海洋区域的影响，以及饲料鱼类供应变化对水产养殖饲料的间接影响。用替代蛋白质替代鱼粉可以降低鱼类生产的气候影响。然而，这种适应措施不适用于以非饲料养殖为主的地区（即贝类）和失去大量适合海水养殖的海洋区域的地区。我们的研究强调了大力减排的重要性，以及需要针对海水养殖系统的多样性制定不同的气候适应方案，以支持具有气候适应能力的海水养殖发展。
