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鱼类和小贴士:南半球商业鱼类物种栖息地适宜性的历史和预测变化。

Fish and tips: Historical and projected changes in commercial fish species' habitat suitability in the Southern Hemisphere.

机构信息

Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Departament de Recursos Marins Renovables, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain.

Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Departament de Recursos Marins Renovables, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio), Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals (BEECA), Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Oct 20;948:174752. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174752. Epub 2024 Jul 14.

Abstract

Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.

摘要

全球变暖显著改变了海洋中的鱼类分布模式,向更高的纬度和更深的水域转移。这在高纬度海洋生态系统中尤为相关,那里的气候驱动的环境变化发生的速度比全球平均速度快。物种分布模型(SDMs)越来越多地被用于预测海洋物种对气候变化的栖息地适宜性分布变化。在这里,我们使用 SDM 来预测一系列高纬度、远洋和底栖鱼类物种和甲壳类动物(10 种)的栖息地适宜性变化;从 1850 年到两个未来的气候变化情景(SSP1-2.6:低气候强迫;和 SSP5-8.5:高气候强迫)。该研究包括跨越南美洲、南部非洲、澳大利亚和新西兰的 11 个大海洋生态系统(LME)。我们发现大多数物种的适宜栖息地面积呈下降和向南转移的趋势,特别是在 SSP5-8.5 情景下,对于某些物种,如南美洲的阿根廷无须鳕(Merluccius hubbsi)或南非外海的鲱鱼(Thyrsites atun)。由于海平面温度上升,地理限制可能导致来自南部非洲、澳大利亚和新西兰的物种面临最显著的栖息地丧失。相比之下,南美洲的物种可能会有更大的向南迁移的机会。此外,SSP5-8.5 情景预测南美洲将比其他地区更稳定。总的来说,我们的研究结果表明,由于环境稳定性较高,巴塔哥尼亚大陆架可能成为气候避难所,这突显了在该地区采取积极管理策略保护物种的重要性。本研究对渔业和保护管理具有重要意义,为南半球未来的保护工作提供了有价值的见解。

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