Psychosocial hardships associated with the COVID-19 pandemic led many individuals to suffer adverse mental health consequences, however, others show no negative effects. We hypothesized that the electroencephalographic (EEG) response to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) could serve as a toy-model of an individual's capacity to resist psychological stress, in this case linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed data from 74 participants who underwent mental health monitoring and concurrent electroencephalography with transcranial magnetic stimulation of the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (L-DLPFC) and left inferior parietal lobule (L-IPL). Within the following 19 months, mental health was reassessed at three time points during lock-down confinement and different phases of de-escalation in Spain. Compared with participants who remained stable, those who experienced increased mental distress showed, months earlier, significantly larger late EEG responses locally after L-DLPFC stimulation (but not globally nor after L-IPL stimulation). This response, together with years of formal education, was significantly predictive of mental health status during the pandemic. These findings reveal that the effect of TMS perturbation offers a predictive toy model of psychosocial stress resilience, as exemplified by the COVID-19 pandemic, and point to the L-DLPFC as a promising target for resilience promotion.