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具有活跃和不活跃媒介的虫媒疾病模型:一种考虑叮咬行为的简单方法。

Vector-Borne Disease Models with Active and Inactive Vectors: A Simple Way to Consider Biting Behavior.

机构信息

Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional (INENCO), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Universidad Nacional de Salta, Av. Bolivia 5100, 4400, Salta, Argentina.

Instituto Multidisciplinario sobre Ecosistemas y Desarrollo Sustentable, Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, Paraje Arroyo Seco s/n, 7000, Tandil, Argentina.

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2021 Dec 23;84(1):22. doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00972-7.

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases are a serious public health problem, mosquitoes being one of the most important vectors. To analyze the dynamics of this type of disease, Ross-Macdonald models are commonly used. In its simplest formulation and the most common in scientific literature, it is assumed that all mosquitoes are biting at a given rate. To improve this general assumption, we developed a vector-borne disease model with active and inactive vectors as a simple way to incorporate the more general characteristics of mosquito feeding behavior into disease dynamics. Our objective is to obtain an estimate of the Ross-Macdonald biting rate from the feeding parameters that reproduce the same dynamics as the model with active and inactive vectors. Two different cases were analyzed: a SIS-SI model and a SIR-SI model with a single epidemic. Different methods to estimate the biting rate in the Ross-Macdonald model were proposed and analyzed. To compare the results of the models, different epidemiological indicators were considered. When the biting rate is estimated considering that both models have the same basic reproduction number, very similar disease dynamics are obtained. This method is a simple way to incorporate the mosquito feeding behavior into the standard Ross-Macdonald model.

摘要

虫媒传染病是一个严重的公共卫生问题,蚊子是最重要的传播媒介之一。为了分析这类疾病的动态,通常使用罗斯-麦克唐纳模型。在其最简单的形式和最常见的科学文献中,假设所有蚊子都以给定的速率叮咬。为了改进这个一般假设,我们开发了一个带有活跃和不活跃蚊子的虫媒传染病模型,这是一种将蚊子更一般的取食行为特征纳入疾病动态的简单方法。我们的目标是从具有相同动力学的活跃和不活跃蚊子模型的取食参数中,获得罗斯-麦克唐纳叮咬率的估计值。分析了两种不同的情况:SIS-SI 模型和具有单一流行的 SIR-SI 模型。提出并分析了不同的估计罗斯-麦克唐纳模型中叮咬率的方法。为了比较模型的结果,考虑了不同的流行病学指标。当考虑到两个模型都具有相同的基本繁殖数来估计叮咬率时,会得到非常相似的疾病动态。这种方法是将蚊子取食行为纳入标准罗斯-麦克唐纳模型的一种简单方法。

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