Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
PLoS Pathog. 2012;8(4):e1002588. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1002588. Epub 2012 Apr 5.
Ronald Ross and George Macdonald are credited with developing a mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. A systematic historical review suggests that several mathematicians and scientists contributed to development of the Ross-Macdonald model over a period of 70 years. Ross developed two different mathematical models, Macdonald a third, and various "Ross-Macdonald" mathematical models exist. Ross-Macdonald models are best defined by a consensus set of assumptions. The mathematical model is just one part of a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens that also includes epidemiological and entomological concepts and metrics for measuring transmission. All the basic elements of the theory had fallen into place by the end of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955-1969) with the concept of vectorial capacity, methods for measuring key components of transmission by mosquitoes, and a quantitative theory of vector control. The Ross-Macdonald theory has since played a central role in development of research on mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and the development of strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention.
罗纳德·罗斯（Ronald Ross）和乔治·麦克唐纳（George Macdonald）被认为开发了一种蚊媒病原体传播的数学模型。系统的历史回顾表明，在 70 年的时间里，有几位数学家和科学家为罗斯-麦克唐纳模型的发展做出了贡献。罗斯开发了两个不同的数学模型，麦克唐纳开发了第三个，并且存在各种“罗斯-麦克唐纳”数学模型。罗斯-麦克唐纳模型最好通过一组共识假设来定义。该数学模型只是蚊媒传播病原体动力学和控制理论的一部分，该理论还包括流行病学和昆虫学概念，以及衡量传播的指标。到全球疟疾根除计划（GMEP，1955-1969 年）结束时，该理论的所有基本要素都已到位，包括媒介效能概念、衡量蚊子传播关键组成部分的方法以及定量的媒介控制理论。自那时以来，罗斯-麦克唐纳理论在蚊媒病原体传播研究的发展以及蚊媒疾病预防策略的制定中发挥了核心作用。
