洪水风险框架与经历的认知和体验效应及其对适应投资行为的影响。

The cognitive and experiential effects of flood risk framings and experience, and their influence on adaptation investment behaviour.

作者信息

Markanday Ambika, Galarraga Ibon

机构信息

Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Parque Cientifico UPV/EHU, Leioa, Spain.

Universidad del País Vasco Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico, Spain.

出版信息

Clim Risk Manag. 2021;34:None. doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100359.

Abstract

This study explores how decision makers invest in adaptation to protect against flood risks in response to a) different framings of flood risk information, and b) after experiencing losses from a hypothetical flood event. An incentivised economic lab experiment is conducted on a sample of students in Bilbao (Basque Country, Spain). A 2 × 2 between-subject design is used to measure investment behaviour with and without exposure to a flood risk map and after exposure to impacts framed as economic losses versus number of persons affected. Experience is measured through a 2-period repeated game within-subject design. Flood risk maps and impacts framed as number of persons affected were conducive to more experiential forms of decision-making, while decisions based on impacts framed as economic losses were more cognitive in nature. Those that saw text-only framings used a combination of cognitive and experiential factors for making decisions. While exposure to maps evoked more affect-driven responses, they were associated with lower ratings of positive affect and self-efficacy, and resulted in lower investments in protection compared to text-only framings. Greater experiential processing was found for impact framings based on persons affected, but they were not especially effective at increasing personal relevance of the issue or in driving investments. Individuals who experienced losses from a hypothetical flood event had greater ratings of negative affect, and made subsequent decisions that were more affect-driven in nature. In contrast, individuals who did not experience losses had greater ratings of positive affect, and made subsequent decisions based on primarily cognitive factors. Investments in protection reduced for those who did not experience losses, and remained the same for those who did experience losses. Results suggest that changes in adaptation investments between decision points may be dependent on both the experience (or lack thereof) of losses, as well as the extent to which individuals were risk-averse or risk-taking in previous investment decisions.

摘要

本研究探讨了决策者如何进行适应性投资,以防范洪水风险,具体针对以下两点:a) 洪水风险信息的不同框架;b) 在经历了一次假设性洪水事件造成的损失之后。在毕尔巴鄂(西班牙巴斯克地区)的学生样本中进行了一项有激励措施的经济实验室实验。采用2×2组间设计来衡量在接触和未接触洪水风险地图的情况下,以及在接触被描述为经济损失与受影响人数的影响之后的投资行为。通过受试者内设计的两阶段重复博弈来衡量经验。以受影响人数来描述的洪水风险地图和影响因素有利于更具经验性的决策形式,而基于经济损失来描述影响因素所做出的决策在本质上则更具认知性。那些只看到文本框架的人在做决策时会结合认知和经验因素。虽然接触地图引发了更多受情感驱动的反应,但与只看文本框架相比,这些反应与较低的积极情感和自我效能评分相关,并且导致对防护的投资减少。对于基于受影响人数的影响框架,发现了更多的经验性处理方式,但它们在提高问题的个人相关性或推动投资方面并不是特别有效。经历了假设性洪水事件造成损失的个体有更高的负面情感评分,并且在后续决策中更多地受情感驱动。相比之下,没有经历损失的个体有更高的积极情感评分,并且后续决策主要基于认知因素。没有经历损失的人对防护的投资减少,而经历了损失的人投资保持不变。结果表明,决策点之间适应性投资的变化可能既取决于损失的经历(或缺乏经历),也取决于个体在先前投资决策中规避风险或冒险的程度。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/efdd/8669783/821f012995b0/gr1.jpg

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索