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细菌-噬菌体循环促进霍乱爆发周期:基于间接易感-感染-恢复-细菌-噬菌体(iSIRBP)模型的数学研究。

Bacteria-bacteriophage cycles facilitate Cholera outbreak cycles: an indirect Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Bacteria- Phage (iSIRBP) model-based mathematical study.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan.

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada.

出版信息

J Biol Dyn. 2022 Dec;16(1):29-43. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2021.2017032.

Abstract

Cholera is an acute enteric infectious disease caused by the Gram-negative bacterium . Despite a huge body of research, the precise nature of its transmission dynamics has yet to be fully elucidated. Mathematical models can be useful to better understand how an infectious agent can spread and be properly controlled. We develop a compartmental model describing a human population, a bacterial population as well as a phage population. We show that there might be eight equilibrium points, one of which is a disease free equilibrium point. We carry out numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses and we show that the presence of phage can reduce the number of infectious individuals. Moreover, we discuss the main implications in terms of public health management and control strategies.

摘要

霍乱是一种由革兰氏阴性菌引起的急性肠道传染病。尽管已经进行了大量的研究,但它的传播动力学的精确性质尚未完全阐明。数学模型可以帮助我们更好地理解传染病是如何传播的,并进行适当的控制。我们开发了一个描述人群、细菌种群和噬菌体种群的房室模型。我们证明了可能存在八个平衡点,其中一个是无病平衡点。我们进行了数值模拟和敏感性分析,结果表明噬菌体的存在可以减少感染个体的数量。此外,我们还讨论了在公共卫生管理和控制策略方面的主要意义。

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