Development Planning Office, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.
Department of Science and Technology, School of Public Health, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
Front Public Health. 2021 Dec 14;9:689575. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.689575. eCollection 2021.
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a single-stranded RNA virus that can weaken the body's cellular and humoral immunity and is a serious disease without specific drug management and vaccine. This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiologic characteristics and transmissibility of HIV. Data on HIV follow-up were collected in Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous, China. An HIV transmission dynamics model was built to simulate the transmission of HIV and estimate its transmissibility by comparing the effective reproduction number ( ) at different stages: the rapid growth period from January 2001 to March 2005, slow growth period from April 2005 to April 2011, and the plateau from May 2011 to December 2019 of HIV in Nanning City. High-risk areas of HIV prevalence in Nanning City were mainly concentrated in suburbs. Furthermore, high-risk groups were those of older age, with lower income, and lower education levels. The in each stage (rapid growth, slow growth, and plateau) were 2.74, 1.62, and 1.15, respectively, which suggests the transmissibility of HIV in Nanning City has declined and prevention and control measures have achieved significant results. Over the past 20 years, the HIV incidence in Nanning has remained at a relatively high level, but its development trend has been curbed. Transmissibility was reduced from 2.74 to 1.15. Therefore, the prevention and treatment measures in Nanning City have achieved significant improvement.
人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）是一种单链 RNA 病毒，它会削弱人体的细胞和体液免疫，是一种严重的疾病，没有特定的药物管理和疫苗。本研究旨在评估 HIV 的流行病学特征和传播力。在中国广西壮族自治区南宁市收集了 HIV 随访数据。建立了 HIV 传播动力学模型，通过比较不同阶段的有效繁殖数（）来模拟 HIV 的传播，并估计其传播力：2001 年 1 月至 2005 年 3 月的快速增长期、2005 年 4 月至 2011 年 4 月的缓慢增长期和 2011 年 5 月至 2019 年 12 月的 HIV 在南宁市的高原期。南宁市 HIV 流行的高危地区主要集中在郊区。此外，高危人群是年龄较大、收入较低、受教育程度较低的人群。各阶段（快速增长、缓慢增长和高原）的分别为 2.74、1.62 和 1.15，这表明南宁市 HIV 的传播力已经下降，预防和控制措施已取得显著成效。在过去的 20 年中，南宁市的 HIV 发病率一直处于较高水平，但发展趋势得到遏制。传播力从 2.74 降低到 1.15。因此，南宁市的预防和治疗措施取得了显著成效。
