Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jan 10;12(1):369. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-04251-2.
The risk of kidney stone presentations increases after hot days, likely due to greater insensible water losses resulting in more concentrated urine and altered urinary flow. It is thus expected that higher temperatures from climate change will increase the global prevalence of kidney stones if no adaptation measures are put in place. This study aims to quantify the impact of heat on kidney stone presentations through 2089, using South Carolina as a model state. We used a time series analysis of historical kidney stone presentations (1997-2014) and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations, and then quantified the projected impact of climate change on future heat-related kidney stone presentations using daily projections of wet-bulb temperatures to 2089, assuming no adaptation or demographic changes. Two climate change models were considered-one assuming aggressive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 4.5) and one representing uninibited greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). The estimated total statewide kidney stone presentations attributable to heat are projected to increase by 2.2% in RCP 4.5 and 3.9% in RCP 8.5 by 2085-89 (vs. 2010-2014), with an associated total excess cost of ~ $57 million and ~ $99 million, respectively.
高温日后肾结石发作的风险会增加，这可能是由于不显性失水增加，导致尿液浓缩和尿流改变。因此，如果不采取适应措施，气候变化引起的高温将增加肾结石的全球发病率。本研究旨在通过以南卡罗来纳州为模型州，量化 2089 年前热对肾结石发作的影响。我们使用历史肾结石发作（1997-2014 年）的时间序列分析和分布式滞后非线性模型来估计肾结石发作与温度的关系，然后使用到 2089 年的湿球温度逐日预测来量化气候变化对未来与热相关的肾结石发作的预计影响，假设没有适应或人口变化。考虑了两种气候变化模型——一种假设温室气体排放大幅减少（RCP 4.5），另一种假设温室气体排放不受限制（RCP 8.5）。到 2085-2089 年，预计 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 中归因于热的全州范围内肾结石发作总数将分别增加 2.2%和 3.9%（与 2010-2014 年相比），分别导致约 5700 万美元和 9900 万美元的总额外费用。
