Okabe Yutaka, Shudo Akira
Department of Physics, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, Tokyo, 192-0397, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jan 11;12(1):523. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-04520-0.
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of variants. Assume that a small number of individuals infected with the variant are added to widespread infection with the original virus. When a highly infectious variant that is more transmissible than the original lineage is added, the variant spreads quickly to the wide space. On the other hand, if the infectivity is about the same as that of the original virus, the infection will not spread. The rate of spread is not linear as a function of the infection strength but increases non-linearly. This cannot be explained by the compartmental model of epidemiology but can be understood in terms of the dynamic absorbing state known from the contact process.
病毒不断经历基因组变化的突变。病毒变体的传播是一个有趣的问题。我们基于网络理论对变体传播进行微观流行病模型的数值模拟。假设将少量感染变体的个体添加到原始病毒的广泛感染中。当添加一种比原始谱系更具传染性的高传染性变体时，该变体迅速传播到广阔空间。另一方面，如果传染性与原始病毒大致相同，则感染不会传播。传播速率不是感染强度的线性函数，而是呈非线性增加。这无法用流行病学的分区模型来解释，但可以从接触过程中已知的动态吸收状态来理解。
