Belba M K, Deda L N, Belba G P
University of Medicine, Tirana, Albania.
University Hospital Center 'Mother Teresa', Tirana, Albania.
Ann Burns Fire Disasters. 2021 Dec 31;34(4):301-311.
Numerous burn mortality indicators and prognostic scores are necessary to classify with priorities severely burned patients in order to predict outcome. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate mortality predictors on admission, in order to determine Lethal Area 50 and to validate burn prognostic scores. The study is retrospective, clinical and analytical. The data utilized were accessed by investigating the medical charts of 5033 patients hospitalized with severe burns within the Intensive Care Unit of the Service of Burns in Tirana, Albania over the period 1992-2019. Descriptive and inferential statistics were performed using PSS 23 software. Statistical significance is defined as p<0.05. The incidence rate of hospitalization of patients with severe burns initially increased from 4.1 to 7.9 persons per 100,000 population/year in the period 1992 to 1999, followed by a decrease from 7.9 to 4.8 in 2019. Mortality was 12.2% and the average burn crude death rate was 0.7 patients per 100,000 population/year. Lethal Area 50 for the second decade (2010-2019) was 82.2%. All tested burn prognostic scores had good predictive values. In addition to the commonly used outcome predictors such as age, burn size and inhalation burn, we concluded that additional determinants like depth of burn and etiology of burns determined an unfavorable outcome. Fatality risk was 4 times higher in patients with full-thickness burns, 2.6 times higher in patients with flame burns, and 4 times higher in patients with inhalation injury.
为了预测严重烧伤患者的预后，需要众多烧伤死亡率指标和预后评分来对其进行优先分类。本文旨在评估入院时的死亡率预测因素，以确定半数致死面积并验证烧伤预后评分。该研究为回顾性、临床和分析性研究。通过调查1992年至2019年期间阿尔巴尼亚地拉那烧伤科重症监护病房收治的5033例严重烧伤患者的病历获取所用数据。使用PSS 23软件进行描述性和推断性统计。统计学显著性定义为p<0.05。严重烧伤患者的住院发病率最初在1992年至1999年期间从每10万人口/年4.1人增加到7.9人，随后在2019年从7.9人降至4.8人。死亡率为12.2%，平均烧伤粗死亡率为每10万人口/年0.7例患者。第二个十年（2010 - 2019年）的半数致死面积为82.2%。所有测试的烧伤预后评分都具有良好的预测价值。除了常用的预后预测因素如年龄、烧伤面积和吸入性烧伤外，我们得出结论，烧伤深度和烧伤病因等其他决定因素也会导致不良预后。全层烧伤患者的死亡风险高4倍，火焰烧伤患者高2.6倍，吸入性损伤患者高4倍。
